Predictions for every game on 2026-08-22 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds @ Diamondbacks | Rhett Lowder vs. Michael Soroka | -4.3 / +7.4 | Diamondbacks | 61% | 4.9–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Rays @ Orioles | Shane McClanahan vs. Brandon Young | +8.4 / -2.7 | Rays | 52% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Giants @ Red Sox | Blade Tidwell vs. Patrick Sandoval | -25.3 / -12.9 | Red Sox | 66% | 5.1–3.7 | 8.8 |
| Mets @ White Sox | Christian Scott vs. Luis Castillo | +4.2 / +4.0 | White Sox | 55% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Guardians @ Rockies | Tanner Bibee vs. Gabriel Hughes | -2.3 / +3.0 | Guardians | 57% | 5.2–4.1 | 9.3 |
| Athletics @ Astros | Jacob Lopez vs. Hunter Brown | +17.0 / +26.1 | Astros | 64% | 5.4–4.1 | 9.5 |
| Tigers @ Royals | Drew Anderson vs. Michael Wacha | -16.3 / +8.6 | Royals | 51% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Pirates @ Dodgers | Jared Jones vs. Tarik Skubal | +6.5 / +21.4 | Dodgers | 63% | 5.1–4.0 | 9.1 |
| Nationals @ Marlins | Jake Irvin vs. Eury Pérez | -12.1 / +9.2 | Marlins | 59% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 |
| Braves @ Brewers | Martín Pérez vs. Logan Henderson | -4.7 / +20.5 | Brewers | 62% | 4.8–3.7 | 8.5 |
| Blue Jays @ Yankees | Dylan Cease vs. Ryan Weathers | +20.2 / -12.2 | Yankees | 55% | 4.1–3.9 | 8.1 |
| Cardinals @ Phillies | TBD vs. Andrew Painter | +0.0 / -36.7 | Phillies | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Twins @ Padres | Dean Kremer vs. Casey Mize | +8.6 / +4.7 | Padres | 59% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.8 |
| Cubs @ Mariners | David Peterson vs. Kade Anderson | -6.9 / +0.5 | Cubs | 53% | 4.9–4.3 | 9.1 |
| Angels @ Rangers | Ryan Johnson vs. Cody Bradford | -27.6 / -1.4 | Rangers | 62% | 4.6–3.6 | 8.2 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb