MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-23
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 51%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 76-53 | +42 | 1519 | 92.8 | 51% | 100% |
| Yankees | 73-56 | +95 | 1542 | 92.0 | 40% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 70-59 | +98 | 1546 | 88.6 | 9% | 98% |
| Orioles | 63-67 | -33 | 1494 | 78.5 | <1% | 13% |
| Blue Jays | 64-67 | -50 | 1503 | 80.3 | <1% | 31% |
AL Central — White Sox 69%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 67-62 | +42 | 1499 | 84.2 | 69% | 81% |
| Guardians | 64-66 | -14 | 1498 | 80.6 | 17% | 36% |
| Tigers | 61-68 | +77 | 1514 | 78.6 | 7% | 16% |
| Twins | 63-67 | -47 | 1479 | 78.4 | 7% | 13% |
| Royals | 57-74 | -95 | 1474 | 71.2 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 49%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 65-65 | -43 | 1494 | 80.6 | 49% | 52% |
| Mariners | 62-68 | -44 | 1493 | 79.1 | 27% | 31% |
| Rangers | 64-66 | -48 | 1483 | 79.1 | 25% | 29% |
| Athletics | 50-80 | -188 | 1430 | 63.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-78 | -68 | 1453 | 65.8 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 72%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 75-56 | +103 | 1527 | 91.9 | 72% | 98% |
| Phillies | 72-58 | +25 | 1532 | 89.0 | 28% | 88% |
| Marlins | 66-64 | +17 | 1500 | 81.2 | <1% | 7% |
| Mets | 59-71 | -39 | 1495 | 74.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 61-70 | +14 | 1476 | 75.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 96%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 81-49 | +163 | 1567 | 99.5 | 96% | 100% |
| Cubs | 74-56 | +98 | 1542 | 91.1 | 4% | 97% |
| Reds | 62-68 | -92 | 1474 | 75.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 63-68 | +29 | 1496 | 78.1 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 66-65 | +0 | 1496 | 81.7 | <1% | 7% |
NL West — Dodgers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 79-51 | +147 | 1554 | 97.8 | 99% | 100% |
| Padres | 70-60 | +9 | 1525 | 87.3 | 1% | 71% |
| Diamondbacks | 68-62 | +7 | 1510 | 84.6 | <1% | 32% |
| Rockies | 50-79 | -131 | 1418 | 62.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 53-77 | -74 | 1469 | 67.7 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (51%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (64%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb