How the 2026-08-23 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0260 ± 0.0112 per game over 120 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 11/15 | 0.624 |
| always-pick-home | 10/15 | 0.673 |
Daily detail: 73% hit rate · Brier 0.216 · avg margin error 3.6 · avg total-runs error 3.4. Running: 72/120 (60.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.660 · cumulative Brier 0.234
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Reds @ Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks (57%) | 4.8–4.3 | 5–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rays @ Orioles | Orioles (51%) | 4.6–4.5 | 1–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Giants @ Red Sox | Red Sox (65%) | 5–3.7 | 5–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mets @ White Sox | White Sox (51%) | 4.7–4.6 | 2–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ Rockies | Guardians (56%) | 5.1–4.2 | 2–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Athletics @ Astros | Astros (61%) | 5.2–4.2 | 6–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Tigers @ Royals | Tigers (54%) | 4.8–4 | 11–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Dodgers | Dodgers (62%) | 5–4 | 4–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Nationals @ Marlins | Marlins (54%) | 4.5–4.3 | 6–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Braves @ Brewers | Brewers (57%) | 4.5–4 | 2–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Blue Jays @ Yankees | Yankees (59%) | 4.4–3.6 | 8–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cardinals @ Phillies | Phillies (59%) | 4.9–4.2 | 6–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Twins @ Padres | Padres (59%) | 4.8–4.1 | 8–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cubs @ Mariners | Cubs (55%) | 5–4.1 | 2–19 (home first) |
| ✅ | Angels @ Rangers | Rangers (58%) | 4.3–3.8 | 5–3 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb