Predictions for every game on 2026-08-23 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds @ Diamondbacks | Andrew Abbott vs. Mitch Bratt | +7.8 / -1.4 | Diamondbacks | 57% | 4.8–4.3 | 9.1 |
| Rays @ Orioles | Nick Martinez vs. Shane Baz | -1.5 / +4.2 | Orioles | 51% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.8 |
| Giants @ Red Sox | Matt Wilkinson vs. Jake Bennett | +1.7 / +6.3 | Red Sox | 65% | 5.0–3.7 | 8.7 |
| Mets @ White Sox | Nolan McLean vs. Sean Newcomb | +19.1 / -2.8 | White Sox | 51% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.0 |
| Guardians @ Rockies | Foster Griffin vs. Tomoyuki Sugano | +3.6 / +17.8 | Guardians | 56% | 5.1–4.2 | 9.3 |
| Athletics @ Astros | Brady Basso vs. Cristian Javier | +13.3 / +2.8 | Astros | 61% | 5.2–4.2 | 9.4 |
| Tigers @ Royals | TBD vs. Daniel Lynch IV | +0.0 / -14.7 | Tigers | 54% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Pirates @ Dodgers | Lake Bachar vs. Blake Snell | +13.2 / +16.0 | Dodgers | 62% | 5.0–4.0 | 9.0 |
| Nationals @ Marlins | Jackson Kent vs. Janson Junk | +2.2 / -17.7 | Marlins | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Braves @ Brewers | Tyler Mahle vs. Shane Drohan | +1.8 / -12.7 | Brewers | 57% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.5 |
| Blue Jays @ Yankees | José Soriano vs. Carlos Rodón | -1.5 / +2.4 | Yankees | 59% | 4.4–3.6 | 8.0 |
| Cardinals @ Phillies | Kyle Leahy vs. Cristopher Sánchez | +7.9 / +9.5 | Phillies | 59% | 4.9–4.2 | 9.1 |
| Twins @ Padres | Bailey Ober vs. Walker Buehler | +3.2 / -5.5 | Padres | 59% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 |
| Cubs @ Mariners | Shota Imanaga vs. Bryce Miller | +14.3 / +4.2 | Cubs | 55% | 5.0–4.1 | 9.1 |
| Angels @ Rangers | Yusei Kikuchi vs. Cal Quantrill | -14.7 / -15.4 | Rangers | 58% | 4.3–3.8 | 8.1 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb