MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-24
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 54%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 77-53 | +44 | 1521 | 93.4 | 54% | 100% |
| Yankees | 74-56 | +100 | 1544 | 92.5 | 38% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 71-59 | +99 | 1546 | 88.9 | 8% | 99% |
| Orioles | 63-68 | -35 | 1492 | 78.0 | <1% | 10% |
| Blue Jays | 64-68 | -55 | 1501 | 79.8 | <1% | 26% |
AL Central — White Sox 76%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 68-62 | +43 | 1500 | 84.9 | 76% | 88% |
| Guardians | 65-66 | -9 | 1500 | 81.1 | 17% | 43% |
| Tigers | 61-69 | +73 | 1512 | 78.0 | 4% | 13% |
| Twins | 63-68 | -54 | 1476 | 77.9 | 4% | 10% |
| Royals | 58-74 | -91 | 1477 | 71.8 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 42%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 65-66 | -44 | 1493 | 80.0 | 42% | 46% |
| Rangers | 65-66 | -46 | 1485 | 79.7 | 37% | 42% |
| Mariners | 62-69 | -61 | 1489 | 78.4 | 21% | 24% |
| Athletics | 51-80 | -187 | 1431 | 63.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-79 | -70 | 1452 | 65.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 74%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 76-56 | +105 | 1529 | 92.5 | 74% | 98% |
| Phillies | 73-58 | +27 | 1534 | 89.5 | 26% | 88% |
| Marlins | 67-64 | +21 | 1502 | 81.8 | <1% | 7% |
| Mets | 59-72 | -40 | 1494 | 73.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 61-71 | +10 | 1474 | 75.3 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 94%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 81-50 | +161 | 1565 | 98.9 | 94% | 100% |
| Cubs | 75-56 | +115 | 1546 | 91.7 | 6% | 97% |
| Reds | 62-69 | -94 | 1472 | 74.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 63-69 | +25 | 1494 | 77.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 66-66 | -2 | 1495 | 81.2 | <1% | 4% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 80-51 | +151 | 1555 | 98.3 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 71-60 | +16 | 1527 | 87.8 | 0% | 74% |
| Diamondbacks | 69-62 | +9 | 1511 | 85.1 | <1% | 32% |
| Rockies | 50-80 | -136 | 1416 | 62.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 53-78 | -75 | 1468 | 67.4 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (54%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (52%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb