How the 2026-08-24 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0270 ± 0.0107 per game over 130 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 6/10 | 0.684 |
| always-pick-home | 3/10 | 0.723 |
Daily detail: 60% hit rate · Brier 0.245 · avg margin error 4.7 · avg total-runs error 3.7. Running: 78/130 (60.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.662 · cumulative Brier 0.235
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Cubs @ Diamondbacks | Cubs (52%) | 5–4.4 | 0–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Twins @ Athletics | Twins (51%) | 4.9–4.5 | 6–9 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rangers @ White Sox | White Sox (58%) | 4.6–4 | 2–11 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rays @ Tigers | Rays (50%) | 4.6–4.3 | 1–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ Angels | Guardians (57%) | 4.6–3.6 | 2–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Red Sox @ Marlins | Red Sox (53%) | 4.6–4.1 | 2–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Pirates @ Padres | Padres (57%) | 4.7–4.2 | 2–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Phillies @ Mariners | Phillies (51%) | 4.8–4.4 | 9–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Reds @ Giants | Reds (51%) | 4.6–4.1 | 5–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rockies @ Nationals | Nationals (62%) | 5.3–4.3 | 13–3 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb