Predictions for every game on 2026-08-24 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs @ Diamondbacks | Kevin Gausman vs. Merrill Kelly | +6.2 / -1.0 | Cubs | 52% | 5.0–4.4 | 9.4 |
| Twins @ Athletics | Zebby Matthews vs. Jeffrey Springs | -7.3 / +5.2 | Twins | 51% | 4.9–4.5 | 9.5 |
| Rangers @ White Sox | Kumar Rocker vs. TBD | -17.3 / +0.0 | White Sox | 58% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Rays @ Tigers | Drew Rasmussen vs. Framber Valdez | +12.7 / -4.9 | Rays | 50% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Guardians @ Angels | Parker Messick vs. George Klassen | +14.2 / -7.0 | Guardians | 57% | 4.6–3.6 | 8.2 |
| Red Sox @ Marlins | Ranger Suarez vs. Sandy Alcantara | +3.3 / +2.8 | Red Sox | 53% | 4.6–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Pirates @ Padres | Braxton Ashcraft vs. Robbie Ray | +19.6 / +6.4 | Padres | 57% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Phillies @ Mariners | Zack Wheeler vs. Logan Gilbert | +15.3 / +24.1 | Phillies | 51% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 |
| Reds @ Giants | Chase Burns vs. TBD | +26.4 / +0.0 | Reds | 51% | 4.6–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Rockies @ Nationals | Ryan Feltner vs. Cade Cavalli | +16.0 / +15.6 | Nationals | 62% | 5.3–4.3 | 9.6 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb