MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-25
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 60%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 78-53 | +47 | 1523 | 94.1 | 60% | 100% |
| Yankees | 74-56 | +100 | 1544 | 92.4 | 32% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 72-59 | +101 | 1548 | 89.5 | 8% | 99% |
| Orioles | 63-68 | -35 | 1492 | 78.0 | <1% | 10% |
| Blue Jays | 64-68 | -55 | 1501 | 79.7 | <1% | 24% |
AL Central — White Sox 65%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 68-63 | +34 | 1496 | 84.0 | 65% | 80% |
| Guardians | 66-66 | -7 | 1502 | 81.6 | 26% | 51% |
| Twins | 64-68 | -51 | 1478 | 78.5 | 6% | 13% |
| Tigers | 61-70 | +70 | 1510 | 77.3 | 3% | 8% |
| Royals | 58-74 | -91 | 1477 | 71.8 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Rangers 41%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rangers | 66-66 | -37 | 1488 | 80.4 | 41% | 47% |
| Astros | 65-66 | -44 | 1493 | 80.1 | 36% | 42% |
| Mariners | 63-69 | -54 | 1492 | 79.0 | 22% | 27% |
| Athletics | 51-81 | -190 | 1429 | 63.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-80 | -72 | 1450 | 64.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 79%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 76-56 | +105 | 1529 | 92.5 | 79% | 99% |
| Phillies | 73-59 | +20 | 1530 | 88.7 | 21% | 87% |
| Marlins | 67-65 | +19 | 1500 | 81.2 | <1% | 6% |
| Mets | 59-72 | -40 | 1494 | 73.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 62-71 | +20 | 1477 | 75.8 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 92%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 81-50 | +161 | 1565 | 98.8 | 92% | 100% |
| Cubs | 76-56 | +122 | 1548 | 92.5 | 8% | 98% |
| Reds | 62-70 | -99 | 1470 | 74.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 64-69 | +26 | 1495 | 78.2 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 66-66 | -2 | 1495 | 81.1 | <1% | 5% |
NL West — Dodgers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 80-51 | +151 | 1555 | 98.3 | 99% | 100% |
| Padres | 71-61 | +15 | 1526 | 87.3 | 1% | 74% |
| Diamondbacks | 69-63 | +2 | 1508 | 84.5 | <1% | 30% |
| Rockies | 50-81 | -146 | 1413 | 61.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 54-78 | -70 | 1471 | 68.0 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (60%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (52%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb