How the 2026-08-25 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0180 ± 0.0102 per game over 145 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 5/15 | 0.750 |
| always-pick-home | 8/15 | 0.691 |
Daily detail: 33% hit rate · Brier 0.278 · avg margin error 3.0 · avg total-runs error 4.4. Running: 83/145 (57.2%) · cumulative log-loss 0.671 · cumulative Brier 0.239
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Cubs @ Diamondbacks | Cubs (52%) | 4.9–4.4 | 5–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Twins @ Athletics | Twins (54%) | 5.1–4.5 | 4–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Dodgers @ Braves | Dodgers (53%) | 4.6–3.9 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rangers @ White Sox | White Sox (53%) | 4.4–4.3 | 11–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rays @ Tigers | Rays (50%) | 4.5–4.2 | 4–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ Angels | Guardians (54%) | 4.5–3.8 | 6–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Red Sox @ Marlins | Red Sox (55%) | 4.8–3.9 | 3–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Brewers @ Mets | Brewers (55%) | 4.7–3.9 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Astros @ Yankees | Yankees (57%) | 4.5–4 | 7–9 (home first) |
| ❌ | Pirates @ Padres | Padres (56%) | 4.6–4.2 | 0–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Phillies @ Mariners | Mariners (50%) | 4.9–4.8 | 4–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Reds @ Giants | Giants (52%) | 4.4–4.3 | 3–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Orioles @ Cardinals | Cardinals (54%) | 4.5–4.3 | 1–13 (home first) |
| ❌ | Royals @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays (57%) | 4.6–4.1 | 3–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rockies @ Nationals | Nationals (63%) | 5.5–4.3 | 1–3 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb