Predictions for every game on 2026-08-25 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs @ Diamondbacks | Clay Holmes vs. Brandon Pfaadt | +5.4 / +5.3 | Cubs | 52% | 4.9–4.4 | 9.3 |
| Twins @ Athletics | Taj Bradley vs. Gage Jump | +8.1 / +8.4 | Twins | 54% | 5.1–4.5 | 9.6 |
| Dodgers @ Braves | Tyler Glasnow vs. Bryce Elder | +12.8 / -7.6 | Dodgers | 53% | 4.6–3.9 | 8.5 |
| Rangers @ White Sox | Jacob deGrom vs. Anthony Kay | +13.6 / +6.4 | White Sox | 53% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.7 |
| Rays @ Tigers | Ian Seymour vs. Jackson Jobe | -0.7 / -13.3 | Rays | 50% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Guardians @ Angels | Gavin Williams vs. Walbert Ureña | +8.0 / +9.3 | Guardians | 54% | 4.5–3.8 | 8.2 |
| Red Sox @ Marlins | Payton Tolle vs. TBD | +12.8 / +0.0 | Red Sox | 55% | 4.8–3.9 | 8.6 |
| Brewers @ Mets | Kyle Harrison vs. Zac Thornton | -3.2 / +8.8 | Brewers | 55% | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 |
| Astros @ Yankees | Ethan Pecko vs. Will Warren | +4.7 / -23.1 | Yankees | 57% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.4 |
| Pirates @ Padres | Paul Skenes vs. Michael King | +21.8 / +11.6 | Padres | 56% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Phillies @ Mariners | Aaron Nola vs. George Kirby | -11.2 / +2.8 | Mariners | 50% | 4.9–4.8 | 9.3 |
| Reds @ Giants | Brady Singer vs. Adrian Houser | +6.1 / -6.2 | Giants | 52% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.6 |
| Orioles @ Cardinals | Chris Bassitt vs. TBD | -4.2 / +0.0 | Cardinals | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Royals @ Blue Jays | Seth Lugo vs. Max Scherzer | -6.1 / -8.5 | Blue Jays | 57% | 4.6–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Rockies @ Nationals | TBD vs. Andrew Alvarez | +0.0 / +7.7 | Nationals | 63% | 5.5–4.3 | 9.8 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb