MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-26
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 56%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 78-54 | +44 | 1521 | 93.4 | 56% | 100% |
| Yankees | 74-57 | +98 | 1542 | 91.7 | 30% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 73-59 | +105 | 1550 | 90.1 | 14% | 100% |
| Orioles | 64-68 | -23 | 1496 | 78.7 | <1% | 12% |
| Blue Jays | 64-69 | -57 | 1499 | 79.1 | <1% | 15% |
AL Central — White Sox 69%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 69-63 | +38 | 1498 | 84.6 | 69% | 84% |
| Guardians | 67-66 | -5 | 1503 | 82.0 | 25% | 54% |
| Twins | 64-69 | -53 | 1476 | 77.9 | 3% | 9% |
| Tigers | 62-70 | +73 | 1512 | 77.8 | 3% | 9% |
| Royals | 59-74 | -89 | 1479 | 72.4 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 41%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 66-66 | -42 | 1495 | 80.6 | 41% | 47% |
| Rangers | 66-67 | -41 | 1486 | 79.9 | 32% | 37% |
| Mariners | 64-69 | -51 | 1495 | 79.5 | 27% | 31% |
| Athletics | 52-81 | -188 | 1431 | 63.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-81 | -74 | 1449 | 64.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 87%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 77-56 | +106 | 1530 | 93.2 | 87% | 100% |
| Phillies | 73-60 | +17 | 1528 | 88.2 | 13% | 84% |
| Marlins | 67-66 | +15 | 1498 | 80.7 | <1% | 5% |
| Mets | 60-72 | -39 | 1495 | 74.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 62-72 | +18 | 1475 | 75.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 91%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 81-51 | +160 | 1564 | 98.3 | 91% | 100% |
| Cubs | 76-57 | +121 | 1547 | 91.9 | 9% | 98% |
| Reds | 62-71 | -101 | 1468 | 73.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 65-69 | +27 | 1496 | 78.8 | <1% | 0% |
| Cardinals | 66-67 | -14 | 1491 | 80.4 | <1% | 3% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 80-52 | +150 | 1554 | 97.7 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 71-62 | +14 | 1525 | 86.8 | <1% | 70% |
| Diamondbacks | 70-63 | +3 | 1509 | 85.1 | <1% | 40% |
| Rockies | 51-81 | -144 | 1416 | 62.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 55-78 | -68 | 1472 | 68.6 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (56%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (53%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb