How the 2026-08-26 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0173 ± 0.0097 per game over 160 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 9/15 | 0.681 |
| always-pick-home | 8/15 | 0.691 |
Daily detail: 60% hit rate · Brier 0.244 · avg margin error 3.8 · avg total-runs error 4.4. Running: 92/160 (57.5%) · cumulative log-loss 0.672 · cumulative Brier 0.240
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Cubs @ Diamondbacks | Cubs (51%) | 4.9–4.5 | 2–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Twins @ Athletics | Athletics (51%) | 4.9–4.8 | 7–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Braves | Braves (51%) | 4.5–4.4 | 6–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rangers @ White Sox | White Sox (57%) | 4.7–4.2 | 10–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rays @ Tigers | Tigers (57%) | 4.6–4.1 | 0–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ Angels | Guardians (55%) | 4.6–3.7 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Red Sox @ Marlins | Red Sox (59%) | 5–3.7 | 4–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Brewers @ Mets | Brewers (58%) | 4.9–3.7 | 1–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Astros @ Yankees | Yankees (60%) | 4.7–3.9 | 9–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Padres | Padres (57%) | 4.5–4.1 | 3–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Phillies @ Mariners | Phillies (50%) | 4.7–4.4 | 0–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Reds @ Giants | Giants (53%) | 4.3–4.2 | 9–10 (home first) |
| ❌ | Orioles @ Cardinals | Cardinals (51%) | 4.7–4.6 | 7–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Royals @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays (57%) | 4.6–4.1 | 3–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rockies @ Nationals | Nationals (60%) | 5.2–4.4 | 1–13 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb