Predictions for every game on 2026-08-26 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs @ Diamondbacks | Matthew Boyd vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | +2.4 / +10.9 | Cubs | 51% | 4.9–4.5 | 9.3 |
| Twins @ Athletics | Connor Prielipp vs. J.T. Ginn | -9.5 / +17.9 | Athletics | 51% | 4.9–4.8 | 9.5 |
| Dodgers @ Braves | Roki Sasaki vs. AJ Smith-Shawver | -12.2 / -8.1 | Braves | 51% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.5 |
| Rangers @ White Sox | MacKenzie Gore vs. Sean Burke | +2.6 / +15.6 | White Sox | 57% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Rays @ Tigers | Freddy Peralta vs. Troy Melton | -9.7 / +21.6 | Tigers | 57% | 4.6–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Guardians @ Angels | Joey Cantillo vs. Grayson Rodriguez | -3.8 / -11.4 | Guardians | 55% | 4.6–3.7 | 8.3 |
| Red Sox @ Marlins | Sonny Gray vs. Ryan Gusto | +9.3 / -25.1 | Red Sox | 59% | 5.0–3.7 | 8.7 |
| Brewers @ Mets | Dustin May vs. Robert Stock | -9.6 / -21.9 | Brewers | 58% | 4.9–3.7 | 8.6 |
| Astros @ Yankees | Peter Lambert vs. TBD | +3.7 / +0.0 | Yankees | 60% | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 |
| Pirates @ Padres | Bubba Chandler vs. Randy Vásquez | -1.4 / -6.6 | Padres | 57% | 4.5–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Phillies @ Mariners | Jesús Luzardo vs. Bryan Woo | +10.0 / +16.2 | Phillies | 50% | 4.7–4.4 | 9.2 |
| Reds @ Giants | Nick Lodolo vs. Landen Roupp | +8.0 / +1.2 | Giants | 53% | 4.3–4.2 | 8.5 |
| Orioles @ Cardinals | Kyle Bradish vs. Michael McGreevy | +12.2 / -0.0 | Cardinals | 51% | 4.7–4.6 | 8.9 |
| Royals @ Blue Jays | Randy Dobnak vs. Spencer Miles | -4.5 / -2.2 | Blue Jays | 57% | 4.6–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Rockies @ Nationals | Tanner Gordon vs. Matt Waldron | -0.6 / -11.9 | Nationals | 60% | 5.2–4.4 | 9.6 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb