MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-27
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 61%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 79-54 | +47 | 1523 | 94.1 | 61% | 100% |
| Yankees | 75-57 | +104 | 1544 | 92.3 | 33% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 73-60 | +101 | 1548 | 89.3 | 6% | 99% |
| Orioles | 65-68 | -22 | 1497 | 79.2 | <1% | 15% |
| Blue Jays | 65-69 | -54 | 1501 | 79.6 | <1% | 18% |
AL Central — White Sox 69%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 70-63 | +44 | 1501 | 85.2 | 69% | 88% |
| Guardians | 68-66 | -4 | 1504 | 82.7 | 28% | 62% |
| Twins | 64-70 | -56 | 1474 | 77.2 | 1% | 5% |
| Tigers | 62-71 | +70 | 1510 | 77.3 | 1% | 5% |
| Royals | 59-75 | -92 | 1477 | 71.8 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 42%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 66-67 | -48 | 1492 | 80.1 | 42% | 45% |
| Rangers | 66-68 | -47 | 1484 | 79.4 | 32% | 35% |
| Mariners | 64-70 | -57 | 1492 | 78.9 | 26% | 28% |
| Athletics | 53-81 | -185 | 1433 | 64.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-82 | -75 | 1448 | 63.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 86%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 78-56 | +107 | 1531 | 93.8 | 86% | 100% |
| Phillies | 74-60 | +23 | 1531 | 88.7 | 14% | 85% |
| Marlins | 68-66 | +19 | 1500 | 81.4 | <1% | 5% |
| Mets | 60-73 | -46 | 1492 | 74.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 62-73 | +6 | 1470 | 74.2 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 96%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 82-51 | +167 | 1566 | 99.0 | 96% | 100% |
| Cubs | 76-58 | +119 | 1546 | 91.2 | 4% | 97% |
| Reds | 63-71 | -100 | 1469 | 74.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 65-70 | +24 | 1495 | 78.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 66-68 | -15 | 1490 | 79.8 | <1% | 1% |
NL West — Dodgers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 80-53 | +149 | 1553 | 97.1 | 99% | 100% |
| Padres | 72-62 | +17 | 1527 | 87.2 | 1% | 71% |
| Diamondbacks | 71-63 | +5 | 1511 | 85.5 | <1% | 42% |
| Rockies | 52-81 | -132 | 1420 | 63.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 55-79 | -69 | 1471 | 68.0 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (61%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (64%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb