How the 2026-08-27 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0162 ± 0.0095 per game over 167 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 4/7 | 0.694 |
| always-pick-home | 4/7 | 0.686 |
Daily detail: 57% hit rate · Brier 0.250 · avg margin error 4.9 · avg total-runs error 3.5. Running: 96/167 (57.5%) · cumulative log-loss 0.673 · cumulative Brier 0.240
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Braves | Braves (51%) | 4.5–4.4 | 1–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Brewers @ Mets | Brewers (61%) | 5–3.6 | 2–8 (home first) |
| ❌ | Astros @ Yankees | Yankees (61%) | 4.8–3.9 | 1–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Diamondbacks @ Giants | Diamondbacks (52%) | 4.6–4.2 | 6–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Orioles @ Cardinals | Cardinals (51%) | 4.7–4.6 | 7–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Royals @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays (55%) | 4.4–4.2 | 2–13 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rockies @ Nationals | Nationals (58%) | 5.2–4.5 | 7–1 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb