Predictions for every game on 2026-08-27 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers @ Braves | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Chris Sale | +24.0 / +27.4 | Braves | 51% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.6 |
| Brewers @ Mets | Jacob Misiorowski vs. Sean Manaea | +32.6 / +6.4 | Brewers | 61% | 5.0–3.6 | 8.6 |
| Astros @ Yankees | Hayden Wesneski vs. Gerrit Cole | +9.9 / +10.7 | Yankees | 61% | 4.8–3.9 | 8.7 |
| Diamondbacks @ Giants | Jose Cabrera vs. Landen Roupp | +0.9 / +0.2 | Diamondbacks | 52% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Orioles @ Cardinals | Trevor Rogers vs. Gordon Graceffo | +12.6 / +1.8 | Cardinals | 51% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.1 |
| Royals @ Blue Jays | Noah Cameron vs. Spencer Arrighetti | +8.2 / -6.5 | Blue Jays | 55% | 4.4–4.2 | 8.6 |
| Rockies @ Nationals | Gabriel Hughes vs. Jake Irvin | +3.1 / -12.2 | Nationals | 58% | 5.2–4.5 | 9.7 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb