MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-28
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 66%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 79-54 | +47 | 1523 | 94.1 | 66% | 100% |
| Yankees | 75-58 | +100 | 1541 | 91.6 | 24% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 73-60 | +101 | 1548 | 89.5 | 9% | 99% |
| Orioles | 65-69 | -24 | 1496 | 78.6 | <1% | 12% |
| Blue Jays | 65-70 | -65 | 1496 | 78.9 | <1% | 13% |
AL Central — White Sox 69%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 70-63 | +44 | 1501 | 85.1 | 69% | 88% |
| Guardians | 68-66 | -4 | 1504 | 82.7 | 28% | 63% |
| Tigers | 62-71 | +70 | 1510 | 77.4 | 2% | 7% |
| Twins | 64-70 | -56 | 1474 | 77.1 | 2% | 5% |
| Royals | 60-75 | -81 | 1481 | 72.6 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 50%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 67-67 | -44 | 1495 | 80.8 | 50% | 54% |
| Rangers | 66-68 | -47 | 1484 | 79.3 | 26% | 31% |
| Mariners | 64-70 | -57 | 1492 | 79.0 | 24% | 28% |
| Athletics | 53-81 | -185 | 1433 | 64.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-82 | -75 | 1448 | 64.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 88%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 79-56 | +108 | 1532 | 94.1 | 88% | 100% |
| Phillies | 74-60 | +23 | 1531 | 88.8 | 12% | 88% |
| Marlins | 68-66 | +19 | 1500 | 81.2 | <1% | 5% |
| Mets | 60-74 | -52 | 1490 | 73.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 63-73 | +12 | 1472 | 74.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 83-51 | +173 | 1569 | 99.4 | 97% | 100% |
| Cubs | 76-58 | +119 | 1546 | 91.3 | 3% | 97% |
| Reds | 63-71 | -100 | 1469 | 74.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 65-70 | +24 | 1495 | 78.4 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 67-68 | -13 | 1491 | 80.3 | <1% | 2% |
NL West — Dodgers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 80-54 | +148 | 1552 | 96.6 | 99% | 100% |
| Padres | 72-62 | +17 | 1527 | 87.1 | 1% | 73% |
| Diamondbacks | 71-64 | +0 | 1508 | 85.0 | <1% | 35% |
| Rockies | 52-82 | -138 | 1418 | 62.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 56-79 | -64 | 1474 | 68.8 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (66%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (73%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb