How the 2026-08-28 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0201 ± 0.0092 per game over 182 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 12/15 | 0.636 |
| always-pick-home | 7/15 | 0.700 |
Daily detail: 80% hit rate · Brier 0.222 · avg margin error 2.8 · avg total-runs error 3.9. Running: 108/182 (59.3%) · cumulative log-loss 0.670 · cumulative Brier 0.239
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Orioles @ Athletics | Orioles (52%) | 5–4.5 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rockies @ Braves | Braves (67%) | 5.3–3.8 | 6–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Reds @ Cubs | Cubs (63%) | 5.1–4 | 8–10 (home first) |
| ❌ | Royals @ Guardians | Guardians (56%) | 4.6–4.2 | 0–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Tigers | Dodgers (57%) | 4.8–3.8 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Phillies @ Angels | Phillies (53%) | 4.6–4 | 3–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rangers @ Brewers | Brewers (67%) | 5.1–3.5 | 6–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | White Sox @ Twins | White Sox (51%) | 4.8–4.4 | 4–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Astros @ Mets | Astros (50%) | 4.6–4.3 | 1–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Red Sox @ Yankees | Yankees (57%) | 4.5–4 | 1–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Diamondbacks @ Giants | Diamondbacks (53%) | 4.7–4 | 6–10 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Cardinals | Cardinals (53%) | 4.5–4.4 | 4–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Padres @ Rays | Rays (54%) | 4.3–4.2 | 9–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mariners @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays (57%) | 4.6–4.1 | 8–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Marlins @ Nationals | Marlins (51%) | 4.6–4.2 | 9–2 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb