Predictions for every game on 2026-08-28 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles @ Athletics | Brandon Young vs. Jacob Lopez | +1.1 / +17.4 | Orioles | 52% | 5.0–4.5 | 9.5 |
| Rockies @ Braves | Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Grant Holmes | +13.9 / -7.0 | Braves | 67% | 5.3–3.8 | 9.1 |
| Reds @ Cubs | Rhett Lowder vs. David Peterson | -0.5 / -12.3 | Cubs | 63% | 5.1–4.0 | 9.1 |
| Royals @ Guardians | Michael Wacha vs. Tanner Bibee | +7.9 / +0.3 | Guardians | 56% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Dodgers @ Tigers | Tarik Skubal vs. Drew Anderson | +20.5 / -13.7 | Dodgers | 57% | 4.8–3.8 | 8.6 |
| Phillies @ Angels | Andrew Painter vs. Reid Detmers | -30.0 / +1.7 | Phillies | 53% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Rangers @ Brewers | Cody Bradford vs. Logan Henderson | +3.1 / +19.8 | Brewers | 67% | 5.1–3.5 | 8.6 |
| White Sox @ Twins | Luis Castillo vs. Dean Kremer | +7.5 / +5.5 | White Sox | 51% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.3 |
| Astros @ Mets | Hunter Brown vs. Christian Scott | +25.7 / +6.3 | Astros | 50% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Red Sox @ Yankees | Patrick Sandoval vs. Cam Schlittler | -13.0 / +16.7 | Yankees | 57% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.4 |
| Diamondbacks @ Giants | Kohl Drake vs. Blade Tidwell | +0.9 / -13.5 | Diamondbacks | 53% | 4.7–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Pirates @ Cardinals | Jared Jones vs. Quinn Mathews | +2.5 / +1.2 | Cardinals | 53% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.9 |
| Padres @ Rays | Casey Mize vs. Shane McClanahan | -0.6 / +2.3 | Rays | 54% | 4.3–4.2 | 8.5 |
| Mariners @ Blue Jays | Emerson Hancock vs. Dylan Cease | +5.6 / +22.7 | Blue Jays | 57% | 4.6–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Marlins @ Nationals | Eury Pérez vs. Jackson Kent | +6.4 / +1.6 | Marlins | 51% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb