MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-29
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 71%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 80-54 | +52 | 1526 | 94.7 | 71% | 100% |
| Yankees | 76-58 | +101 | 1542 | 92.1 | 25% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 73-61 | +100 | 1546 | 88.9 | 4% | 99% |
| Orioles | 66-69 | -23 | 1497 | 79.2 | <1% | 17% |
| Blue Jays | 66-70 | -58 | 1499 | 79.5 | <1% | 18% |
AL Central — White Sox 79%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 71-63 | +47 | 1503 | 85.6 | 79% | 92% |
| Guardians | 68-67 | -7 | 1502 | 82.0 | 19% | 55% |
| Twins | 64-71 | -59 | 1472 | 76.7 | 1% | 4% |
| Tigers | 62-72 | +69 | 1508 | 76.9 | 1% | 5% |
| Royals | 61-75 | -78 | 1484 | 73.3 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 61%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 68-67 | -42 | 1497 | 81.4 | 61% | 64% |
| Rangers | 66-69 | -52 | 1482 | 78.9 | 20% | 24% |
| Mariners | 64-71 | -64 | 1489 | 78.6 | 19% | 23% |
| Athletics | 53-82 | -186 | 1432 | 64.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-83 | -77 | 1447 | 63.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 89%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 80-56 | +110 | 1533 | 94.5 | 89% | 100% |
| Phillies | 75-60 | +25 | 1532 | 89.2 | 11% | 90% |
| Marlins | 68-67 | +12 | 1497 | 80.6 | <1% | 4% |
| Mets | 60-75 | -54 | 1488 | 72.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 64-73 | +19 | 1476 | 75.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 98%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 84-51 | +178 | 1570 | 99.8 | 98% | 100% |
| Cubs | 76-59 | +117 | 1544 | 90.6 | 2% | 96% |
| Reds | 64-71 | -98 | 1472 | 74.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 65-71 | +21 | 1493 | 77.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 68-68 | -10 | 1493 | 80.9 | <1% | 3% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 81-54 | +149 | 1553 | 97.2 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 72-63 | +12 | 1524 | 86.6 | <1% | 63% |
| Diamondbacks | 72-64 | +4 | 1510 | 85.5 | <1% | 43% |
| Rockies | 52-83 | -140 | 1417 | 62.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 56-80 | -68 | 1472 | 68.1 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (71%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (73%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb