Predictions for every game on 2026-08-29 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles @ Athletics | Shane Baz vs. Jack Perkins | +5.6 / -14.1 | Orioles | 59% | 5.3–4.1 | 9.4 |
| Rockies @ Braves | Ryan Feltner vs. Martín Pérez | +14.1 / -5.9 | Braves | 67% | 5.3–3.8 | 9.1 |
| Reds @ Cubs | Andrew Abbott vs. Kevin Gausman | +11.0 / +2.4 | Cubs | 62% | 5.2–4.1 | 9.3 |
| Royals @ Guardians | Daniel Lynch IV vs. Foster Griffin | -18.2 / +4.9 | Guardians | 59% | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 |
| Dodgers @ Tigers | Blake Snell vs. Keider Montero | +15.7 / -0.6 | Dodgers | 55% | 4.7–3.8 | 8.5 |
| Phillies @ Angels | Cristopher Sánchez vs. Ryan Johnson | +9.7 / -16.7 | Phillies | 62% | 5.1–3.5 | 8.6 |
| Rangers @ Brewers | Cal Quantrill vs. Shane Drohan | -7.4 / -16.3 | Brewers | 64% | 5.0–3.6 | 8.6 |
| White Sox @ Twins | Erick Fedde vs. Bailey Ober | +1.0 / +3.4 | White Sox | 51% | 4.8–4.5 | 9.3 |
| Astros @ Mets | Bennett Sousa vs. Nolan McLean | +3.8 / +24.2 | Mets | 55% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Red Sox @ Yankees | Jake Bennett vs. Carlos Rodón | +4.8 / +2.1 | Yankees | 52% | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 |
| Diamondbacks @ Giants | Merrill Kelly vs. TBD | -2.5 / +0.0 | Diamondbacks | 52% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Pirates @ Cardinals | Lake Bachar vs. Kyle Leahy | +7.5 / +12.0 | Cardinals | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Padres @ Rays | Walker Buehler vs. Nick Martinez | -7.4 / -4.7 | Rays | 54% | 4.4–4.2 | 8.6 |
| Mariners @ Blue Jays | Kade Anderson vs. José Soriano | +2.1 / -1.6 | Blue Jays | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.7 |
| Marlins @ Nationals | Sandy Alcantara vs. Cade Cavalli | +3.7 / +13.6 | Nationals | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.8 |
| Red Sox @ Yankees (G2) | TBD vs. Max Fried | +0.0 / +6.9 | Yankees | 54% | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 |
| Diamondbacks @ Giants (G2) | Mitch Bratt vs. TBD | -6.2 / +0.0 | Diamondbacks | 51% | 4.7–4.3 | 8.9 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb