MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-30
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 75%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 81-54 | +53 | 1527 | 95.1 | 75% | 100% |
| Yankees | 77-59 | +102 | 1542 | 92.0 | 21% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 74-62 | +99 | 1547 | 89.0 | 4% | 99% |
| Orioles | 67-69 | -21 | 1498 | 79.7 | <1% | 21% |
| Blue Jays | 67-70 | -57 | 1500 | 79.9 | <1% | 24% |
AL Central — White Sox 88%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 72-63 | +48 | 1504 | 86.2 | 88% | 95% |
| Guardians | 68-68 | -12 | 1499 | 81.2 | 10% | 44% |
| Tigers | 63-72 | +70 | 1510 | 77.5 | 1% | 7% |
| Twins | 64-72 | -60 | 1471 | 76.2 | 0% | 2% |
| Royals | 62-75 | -73 | 1487 | 74.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 62%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 68-68 | -46 | 1495 | 81.0 | 62% | 65% |
| Rangers | 66-70 | -54 | 1481 | 78.5 | 20% | 23% |
| Mariners | 64-72 | -65 | 1488 | 78.1 | 18% | 19% |
| Athletics | 53-83 | -188 | 1431 | 63.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-84 | -79 | 1445 | 62.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 88%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 81-56 | +111 | 1534 | 94.8 | 88% | 100% |
| Phillies | 76-60 | +27 | 1534 | 89.6 | 12% | 93% |
| Marlins | 68-68 | +11 | 1496 | 80.0 | <1% | 2% |
| Mets | 61-75 | -50 | 1490 | 73.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 65-73 | +20 | 1477 | 76.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 98%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 85-51 | +180 | 1572 | 100.2 | 98% | 100% |
| Cubs | 77-59 | +129 | 1546 | 91.0 | 2% | 98% |
| Reds | 64-72 | -110 | 1469 | 74.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 66-71 | +25 | 1495 | 78.4 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 68-69 | -14 | 1490 | 80.2 | <1% | 1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 81-55 | +148 | 1552 | 96.7 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 72-64 | +11 | 1523 | 86.1 | <1% | 59% |
| Diamondbacks | 73-65 | +5 | 1510 | 85.4 | <1% | 45% |
| Rockies | 52-84 | -141 | 1416 | 61.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 57-81 | -69 | 1472 | 68.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (75%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (77%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb