How the 2026-08-30 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0231 ± 0.0087 per game over 213 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 8/14 | 0.681 |
| always-pick-home | 6/14 | 0.705 |
Daily detail: 57% hit rate · Brier 0.244 · avg margin error 4.3 · avg total-runs error 2.5. Running: 128/213 (60.1%) · cumulative log-loss 0.668 · cumulative Brier 0.237
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Orioles @ Athletics | Orioles (56%) | 5.1–4.2 | 5–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rockies @ Braves | Braves (67%) | 5.3–3.7 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Reds @ Cubs | Cubs (62%) | 5.3–4.3 | 5–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Royals @ Guardians | Guardians (59%) | 4.7–4 | 11–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Tigers | Dodgers (55%) | 4.6–3.8 | 1–6 (home first) |
| ✅ | Phillies @ Angels | Phillies (62%) | 5.1–3.5 | 2–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rangers @ Brewers | Brewers (66%) | 5–3.6 | 4–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | White Sox @ Twins | White Sox (52%) | 4.8–4.4 | 5–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Astros @ Mets | Mets (54%) | 4.5–4.3 | 3–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Red Sox @ Yankees | Red Sox (51%) | 4.3–4 | 16–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Cardinals | Pirates (51%) | 4.6–4.2 | 4–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Padres @ Rays | Rays (55%) | 4.5–4.2 | 5–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mariners @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays (50%) | 4.6–4.5 | 7–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Marlins @ Nationals | Nationals (53%) | 4.5–4.4 | 2–6 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb