Predictions for every game on 2026-08-30 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles @ Athletics | Chris Bassitt vs. Jeffrey Springs | -1.3 / +0.8 | Orioles | 56% | 5.1–4.2 | 9.4 |
| Rockies @ Braves | Mason Adams vs. Tyler Mahle | +15.2 / -0.2 | Braves | 67% | 5.3–3.7 | 9.0 |
| Reds @ Cubs | Chase Burns vs. Shota Imanaga | +28.7 / +8.7 | Cubs | 62% | 5.3–4.3 | 9.6 |
| Royals @ Guardians | Seth Lugo vs. Parker Messick | -9.0 / +16.8 | Guardians | 59% | 4.7–4.0 | 8.7 |
| Dodgers @ Tigers | Tyler Glasnow vs. Framber Valdez | +11.2 / -5.6 | Dodgers | 55% | 4.6–3.8 | 8.4 |
| Phillies @ Angels | Zack Wheeler vs. Yusei Kikuchi | +8.3 / -12.0 | Phillies | 62% | 5.1–3.5 | 8.5 |
| Rangers @ Brewers | Kumar Rocker vs. Dustin May | -9.6 / -12.9 | Brewers | 66% | 5.0–3.6 | 8.6 |
| White Sox @ Twins | Jordan Hicks vs. Zebby Matthews | -2.3 / -5.4 | White Sox | 52% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 |
| Astros @ Mets | Ethan Pecko vs. Zac Thornton | +4.3 / +12.9 | Mets | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Red Sox @ Yankees | Ranger Suarez vs. Will Warren | +0.2 / -23.2 | Red Sox | 51% | 4.3–4.0 | 8.3 |
| Pirates @ Cardinals | Braxton Ashcraft vs. Matthew Liberatore | +17.0 / -11.0 | Pirates | 51% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Padres @ Rays | Robbie Ray vs. Drew Rasmussen | +5.1 / +10.9 | Rays | 55% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.7 |
| Mariners @ Blue Jays | Logan Gilbert vs. Max Scherzer | +25.1 / -9.1 | Blue Jays | 50% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.7 |
| Marlins @ Nationals | Janson Junk vs. Andrew Alvarez | -15.8 / +2.8 | Nationals | 53% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb