MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-31
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 76%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 82-54 | +54 | 1528 | 95.6 | 76% | 100% |
| Yankees | 78-59 | +117 | 1546 | 92.7 | 23% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 74-63 | +84 | 1543 | 88.3 | 1% | 99% |
| Orioles | 68-69 | -18 | 1500 | 80.1 | <1% | 24% |
| Blue Jays | 68-70 | -50 | 1503 | 80.4 | <1% | 24% |
AL Central — White Sox 81%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 72-64 | +44 | 1501 | 85.6 | 81% | 92% |
| Guardians | 69-68 | -2 | 1502 | 81.9 | 18% | 49% |
| Tigers | 63-73 | +65 | 1507 | 76.8 | 1% | 3% |
| Twins | 65-72 | -56 | 1474 | 76.8 | <1% | 3% |
| Royals | 62-76 | -83 | 1484 | 73.4 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 65%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 69-68 | -43 | 1497 | 81.4 | 65% | 67% |
| Rangers | 67-70 | -51 | 1484 | 79.2 | 25% | 28% |
| Mariners | 64-73 | -72 | 1485 | 77.5 | 11% | 12% |
| Athletics | 53-84 | -191 | 1429 | 63.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 52-85 | -82 | 1444 | 62.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 89%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 82-56 | +112 | 1534 | 95.4 | 89% | 100% |
| Phillies | 77-60 | +30 | 1535 | 90.2 | 11% | 96% |
| Marlins | 69-68 | +15 | 1499 | 80.7 | <1% | 5% |
| Mets | 61-76 | -53 | 1488 | 72.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 65-74 | +16 | 1474 | 75.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 85-52 | +177 | 1569 | 99.4 | 99% | 100% |
| Cubs | 77-60 | +127 | 1544 | 90.2 | 1% | 96% |
| Reds | 65-72 | -108 | 1471 | 74.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 67-71 | +26 | 1496 | 79.1 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 68-70 | -15 | 1489 | 79.6 | <1% | 2% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 82-55 | +153 | 1554 | 97.1 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 72-65 | +10 | 1522 | 85.6 | <1% | 51% |
| Diamondbacks | 73-65 | +5 | 1510 | 85.5 | <1% | 49% |
| Rockies | 52-85 | -142 | 1416 | 61.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 57-81 | -69 | 1472 | 68.1 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (76%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (67%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb