How the 2026-08-31 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0218 ± 0.0085 per game over 225 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 8/12 | 0.685 |
| always-pick-home | 7/12 | 0.684 |
Daily detail: 67% hit rate · Brier 0.246 · avg margin error 4.9 · avg total-runs error 3.9. Running: 136/225 (60.4%) · cumulative log-loss 0.668 · cumulative Brier 0.238
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Phillies @ Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks (53%) | 4.6–4.5 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Giants @ Braves | Braves (61%) | 4.6–3.7 | 3–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mariners @ Red Sox | Red Sox (62%) | 5–3.9 | 9–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Brewers @ Cubs | Cubs (52%) | 4.7–4.6 | 17–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Padres @ Reds | Padres (54%) | 4.9–4.2 | 0–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Orioles @ Rockies | Orioles (58%) | 5.3–4.1 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | White Sox @ Astros | Astros (52%) | 4.7–4.6 | 6–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Yankees @ Angels | Yankees (56%) | 4.5–3.6 | 10–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Tigers @ Twins | Twins (52%) | 4.5–4.4 | 11–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ Rays | Rays (63%) | 4.9–3.7 | 2–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Athletics @ Rangers | Rangers (62%) | 5.1–4.1 | 8–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Marlins @ Nationals | Nationals (53%) | 4.5–4.4 | 6–3 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb