Predictions for every game on 2026-08-31 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies @ Diamondbacks | Aaron Nola vs. TBD | -17.2 / +0.0 | Diamondbacks | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.0 |
| Giants @ Braves | Anthony Molina vs. Bryce Elder | +1.5 / -11.2 | Braves | 61% | 4.6–3.7 | 8.4 |
| Mariners @ Red Sox | George Kirby vs. Payton Tolle | +7.0 / +12.7 | Red Sox | 62% | 5.0–3.9 | 8.9 |
| Brewers @ Cubs | Kyle Harrison vs. Clay Holmes | -4.4 / +8.1 | Cubs | 52% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.2 |
| Padres @ Reds | Michael King vs. Brady Singer | +11.1 / +9.8 | Padres | 54% | 4.9–4.2 | 9.0 |
| Orioles @ Rockies | TBD vs. Tanner Gordon | +0.0 / +1.0 | Orioles | 58% | 5.3–4.1 | 9.4 |
| White Sox @ Astros | Anthony Kay vs. Peter Lambert | +8.3 / -0.0 | Astros | 52% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.1 |
| Yankees @ Angels | Elmer Rodríguez vs. Walbert Ureña | -26.9 / +5.9 | Yankees | 56% | 4.5–3.6 | 8.2 |
| Tigers @ Twins | Jackson Jobe vs. Taj Bradley | -13.1 / +6.8 | Twins | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.7 |
| Mets @ Rays | Robert Stock vs. Ian Seymour | -31.4 / -2.7 | Rays | 63% | 4.9–3.7 | 8.6 |
| Athletics @ Rangers | Gage Jump vs. Jacob deGrom | +10.2 / +16.5 | Rangers | 62% | 5.1–4.1 | 9.2 |
| Marlins @ Nationals | Ryan Gusto vs. Will Dion | -20.2 / -0.7 | Nationals | 53% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb