MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-01
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 78%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 82-55 | +53 | 1526 | 95.1 | 78% | 100% |
| Yankees | 78-60 | +108 | 1542 | 91.8 | 20% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 75-63 | +85 | 1544 | 88.7 | 2% | 99% |
| Orioles | 69-69 | -17 | 1501 | 80.6 | <1% | 26% |
| Blue Jays | 68-70 | -50 | 1503 | 80.5 | <1% | 25% |
AL Central — White Sox 78%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 72-65 | +41 | 1499 | 85.1 | 78% | 89% |
| Guardians | 69-68 | -2 | 1502 | 81.9 | 20% | 47% |
| Twins | 66-72 | -46 | 1477 | 77.3 | 1% | 4% |
| Tigers | 63-74 | +55 | 1503 | 76.3 | 1% | 2% |
| Royals | 62-76 | -83 | 1484 | 73.4 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 71%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 70-68 | -40 | 1499 | 82.0 | 71% | 73% |
| Rangers | 68-70 | -44 | 1486 | 79.7 | 24% | 28% |
| Mariners | 64-74 | -73 | 1485 | 77.0 | 5% | 6% |
| Athletics | 53-85 | -198 | 1427 | 62.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 53-85 | -73 | 1448 | 63.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 82-57 | +108 | 1531 | 94.4 | 80% | 100% |
| Phillies | 78-60 | +31 | 1536 | 90.8 | 20% | 98% |
| Marlins | 69-69 | +12 | 1497 | 80.1 | <1% | 3% |
| Mets | 62-76 | -52 | 1490 | 73.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 66-74 | +19 | 1476 | 76.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 85-53 | +163 | 1565 | 98.7 | 97% | 100% |
| Cubs | 78-60 | +141 | 1548 | 90.9 | 3% | 97% |
| Reds | 65-73 | -113 | 1468 | 74.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 67-71 | +26 | 1496 | 79.1 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 68-70 | -15 | 1489 | 79.6 | <1% | 1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 82-55 | +153 | 1554 | 97.1 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 73-65 | +15 | 1525 | 86.1 | <1% | 60% |
| Diamondbacks | 73-66 | +4 | 1509 | 85.0 | <1% | 41% |
| Rockies | 52-86 | -143 | 1415 | 61.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 58-81 | -65 | 1475 | 69.0 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (78%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (63%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb