Predictions for every game on 2026-09-01 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies @ Diamondbacks | Jesús Luzardo vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | +6.2 / +9.4 | Diamondbacks | 50% | 4.7–4.6 | 8.9 |
| Mariners @ Red Sox | Bryan Woo vs. TBD | +19.6 / +0.0 | Red Sox | 59% | 4.9–4.2 | 9.1 |
| Brewers @ Cubs | Robert Gasser vs. Matthew Boyd | -8.2 / +4.2 | Cubs | 53% | 4.8–4.7 | 9.4 |
| Padres @ Reds | Randy Vásquez vs. Nick Lodolo | -6.6 / +12.0 | Padres | 52% | 4.7–4.2 | 9.0 |
| Blue Jays @ Guardians | Spencer Miles vs. Gavin Williams | -39.0 / +6.5 | Guardians | 60% | 4.6–3.8 | 8.5 |
| Orioles @ Rockies | Kyle Bradish vs. Gabriel Hughes | +12.3 / -1.0 | Orioles | 61% | 5.4–3.9 | 9.3 |
| White Sox @ Astros | Sean Burke vs. Ronel Blanco | +18.4 / +16.6 | Astros | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.1 |
| Marlins @ Royals | Tyler Phillips vs. Randy Dobnak | -18.8 / -2.6 | Royals | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Yankees @ Angels | Gerrit Cole vs. Grayson Rodriguez | +10.0 / -13.9 | Yankees | 63% | 5.0–3.2 | 8.2 |
| Cardinals @ Dodgers | Michael McGreevy vs. Eric Lauer | -3.0 / -20.5 | Dodgers | 60% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Tigers @ Twins | Troy Melton vs. Andrew Morris | +21.1 / +0.7 | Tigers | 53% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
| Giants @ Pirates | Logan Webb vs. Paul Skenes | +15.5 / +21.2 | Pirates | 58% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.7 |
| Mets @ Rays | Sean Manaea vs. Freddy Peralta | +2.5 / -9.7 | Rays | 57% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Athletics @ Rangers | Brady Basso vs. MacKenzie Gore | +8.5 / +0.2 | Rangers | 61% | 5.1–4.2 | 9.2 |
| Braves @ Nationals | AJ Smith-Shawver vs. Jake Irvin | -10.8 / -17.4 | Braves | 55% | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb