MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-02
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 83-55 | +57 | 1528 | 95.5 | 80% | 100% |
| Yankees | 79-60 | +112 | 1544 | 92.2 | 19% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 75-64 | +82 | 1541 | 88.0 | 1% | 98% |
| Orioles | 69-70 | -19 | 1499 | 80.0 | <1% | 20% |
| Blue Jays | 68-71 | -55 | 1501 | 80.0 | <1% | 18% |
AL Central — White Sox 78%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 73-65 | +45 | 1502 | 85.7 | 78% | 93% |
| Guardians | 70-68 | +3 | 1505 | 82.4 | 20% | 55% |
| Twins | 67-72 | -33 | 1481 | 78.1 | 2% | 5% |
| Tigers | 63-75 | +42 | 1499 | 75.6 | <1% | 1% |
| Royals | 62-77 | -86 | 1481 | 72.8 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 59%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 70-69 | -44 | 1496 | 81.5 | 59% | 63% |
| Rangers | 69-70 | -41 | 1488 | 80.1 | 31% | 36% |
| Mariners | 65-74 | -70 | 1487 | 77.8 | 10% | 11% |
| Athletics | 53-86 | -201 | 1425 | 62.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 53-86 | -77 | 1446 | 63.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 70%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 82-58 | +104 | 1529 | 93.7 | 70% | 100% |
| Phillies | 79-60 | +37 | 1539 | 91.4 | 30% | 99% |
| Marlins | 70-69 | +15 | 1499 | 80.7 | <1% | 6% |
| Mets | 62-77 | -56 | 1488 | 72.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 67-74 | +23 | 1479 | 76.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 86-53 | +168 | 1568 | 99.4 | 99% | 100% |
| Cubs | 78-61 | +136 | 1546 | 90.3 | 1% | 98% |
| Reds | 66-73 | -112 | 1470 | 75.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 68-71 | +27 | 1497 | 79.5 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 69-70 | -10 | 1493 | 80.3 | <1% | 3% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 82-56 | +148 | 1551 | 96.4 | 100% | 100% |
| Padres | 73-66 | +14 | 1524 | 85.5 | <1% | 59% |
| Diamondbacks | 73-67 | -2 | 1506 | 84.3 | <1% | 35% |
| Rockies | 53-86 | -141 | 1417 | 61.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 58-82 | -66 | 1474 | 68.4 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (80%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (76%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb