How the 2026-09-02 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0169 ± 0.0082 per game over 255 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 5/15 | 0.751 |
| always-pick-home | 4/15 | 0.727 |
Daily detail: 33% hit rate · Brier 0.279 · avg margin error 4.4 · avg total-runs error 3.6. Running: 146/255 (57.2%) · cumulative log-loss 0.676 · cumulative Brier 0.241
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Phillies @ Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks (52%) | 4.6–4.5 | 1–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mariners @ Red Sox | Red Sox (59%) | 5–4.2 | 3–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Brewers @ Cubs | Brewers (56%) | 5.2–4.3 | 5–9 (home first) |
| ❌ | Padres @ Reds | Padres (54%) | 4.8–4.1 | 7–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Blue Jays @ Guardians | Guardians (50%) | 4.4–4.3 | 0–11 (home first) |
| ❌ | Orioles @ Rockies | Orioles (59%) | 5.2–4 | 6–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | White Sox @ Astros | Astros (53%) | 4.6–4.5 | 2–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Marlins @ Royals | Royals (52%) | 4.5–4.4 | 6–9 (home first) |
| ✅ | Yankees @ Angels | Yankees (63%) | 5–3.3 | 3–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Cardinals @ Dodgers | Dodgers (65%) | 5.2–3.8 | 6–8 (home first) |
| ❌ | Tigers @ Twins | Twins (52%) | 4.6–4.5 | 6–11 (home first) |
| ❌ | Giants @ Pirates | Pirates (56%) | 4.7–4.3 | 4–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ Rays | Rays (58%) | 4.6–4 | 4–10 (home first) |
| ❌ | Athletics @ Rangers | Rangers (59%) | 5–4.3 | 2–9 (home first) |
| ✅ | Braves @ Nationals | Braves (55%) | 4.8–4 | 0–9 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb