Predictions for every game on 2026-09-02 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies @ Diamondbacks | Andrew Painter vs. Taylor Clarke | -31.1 / -11.0 | Diamondbacks | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Mariners @ Red Sox | Bryce Miller vs. Patrick Sandoval | +6.3 / -6.7 | Red Sox | 59% | 5.0–4.2 | 9.2 |
| Brewers @ Cubs | Jacob Misiorowski vs. David Peterson | +36.2 / -9.4 | Brewers | 56% | 5.2–4.3 | 9.5 |
| Padres @ Reds | Casey Mize vs. Brandon Williamson | -2.1 / +3.0 | Padres | 54% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 |
| Blue Jays @ Guardians | Dylan Cease vs. Joey Cantillo | +18.4 / -7.9 | Guardians | 50% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.4 |
| Orioles @ Rockies | Trevor Rogers vs. Tomoyuki Sugano | +11.3 / +7.5 | Orioles | 59% | 5.2–4.0 | 9.2 |
| White Sox @ Astros | Davis Martin vs. Hayden Wesneski | +3.1 / +6.8 | Astros | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.1 |
| Marlins @ Royals | Eury Pérez vs. Noah Cameron | +6.0 / +11.0 | Royals | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
| Yankees @ Angels | Cam Schlittler vs. Reid Detmers | +18.4 / -0.4 | Yankees | 63% | 5.0–3.3 | 8.3 |
| Cardinals @ Dodgers | TBD vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +0.0 / +23.4 | Dodgers | 65% | 5.2–3.8 | 9.0 |
| Tigers @ Twins | Drew Anderson vs. Dean Kremer | -8.2 / +0.1 | Twins | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Giants @ Pirates | Landen Roupp vs. Bubba Chandler | +5.9 / +1.8 | Pirates | 56% | 4.7–4.3 | 9.0 |
| Mets @ Rays | Justin Hagenman vs. Griffin Jax | +1.2 / -10.7 | Rays | 58% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Athletics @ Rangers | Jacob Lopez vs. Cody Bradford | +20.6 / -2.0 | Rangers | 59% | 5.0–4.3 | 9.3 |
| Braves @ Nationals | Grant Holmes vs. Brad Lord | -4.8 / -11.0 | Braves | 55% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.7 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb