MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-03
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 70%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 83-56 | +51 | 1525 | 94.8 | 70% | 100% |
| Yankees | 80-60 | +115 | 1545 | 92.7 | 29% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 75-65 | +77 | 1538 | 87.4 | <1% | 98% |
| Orioles | 69-71 | -20 | 1498 | 79.3 | <1% | 16% |
| Blue Jays | 69-71 | -44 | 1505 | 80.6 | <1% | 29% |
AL Central — White Sox 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 73-66 | +43 | 1500 | 85.1 | 80% | 92% |
| Guardians | 70-69 | -8 | 1501 | 81.8 | 18% | 48% |
| Twins | 67-73 | -38 | 1478 | 77.4 | 1% | 4% |
| Tigers | 64-75 | +47 | 1502 | 76.2 | 1% | 2% |
| Royals | 62-78 | -89 | 1479 | 72.3 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 69%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 71-69 | -42 | 1498 | 82.0 | 69% | 72% |
| Rangers | 69-71 | -48 | 1484 | 79.4 | 18% | 24% |
| Mariners | 66-74 | -65 | 1490 | 78.4 | 13% | 15% |
| Athletics | 54-86 | -194 | 1429 | 63.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 53-87 | -80 | 1444 | 62.5 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 83-58 | +113 | 1532 | 94.3 | 80% | 100% |
| Phillies | 79-61 | +36 | 1538 | 90.8 | 20% | 99% |
| Marlins | 71-69 | +18 | 1501 | 81.3 | <1% | 6% |
| Mets | 63-77 | -50 | 1491 | 73.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 67-75 | +14 | 1476 | 76.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 87-53 | +172 | 1570 | 99.9 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 78-62 | +132 | 1543 | 89.7 | <1% | 97% |
| Reds | 67-73 | -108 | 1472 | 75.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 68-72 | +26 | 1496 | 78.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 70-70 | -8 | 1495 | 81.0 | <1% | 4% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 82-57 | +146 | 1549 | 95.8 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 74-67 | -1 | 1507 | 84.9 | <1% | 45% |
| Padres | 73-67 | +10 | 1521 | 85.0 | <1% | 48% |
| Rockies | 54-86 | -140 | 1418 | 62.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 59-82 | -65 | 1475 | 69.0 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (70%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (84%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb