Predictions for every game on 2026-09-03 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox @ Orioles | Jake Bennett vs. Brandon Young | +16.6 / +1.0 | Red Sox | 55% | 4.9–4.1 | 9.0 |
| Brewers @ Cubs | Logan Henderson vs. Kevin Gausman | +30.2 / +6.4 | Brewers | 54% | 5.2–4.5 | 9.6 |
| Blue Jays @ Guardians | José Soriano vs. Tanner Bibee | -5.8 / -0.7 | Guardians | 54% | 4.3–4.2 | 8.5 |
| White Sox @ Astros | Luis Castillo vs. Hunter Brown | +5.4 / +20.9 | Astros | 55% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Marlins @ Royals | Sandy Alcantara vs. Michael Wacha | +5.7 / +14.5 | Royals | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Cardinals @ Dodgers | Quinn Mathews vs. Tarik Skubal | +1.9 / +20.9 | Dodgers | 64% | 5.2–4.0 | 9.2 |
| Giants @ Pirates | Blade Tidwell vs. Lake Bachar | -15.9 / +10.0 | Pirates | 60% | 4.9–4.1 | 9.0 |
| Athletics @ Mariners | Jack Perkins vs. Kade Anderson | -8.7 / +2.4 | Mariners | 64% | 5.4–4.2 | 9.6 |
| Rays @ Rangers | Shane McClanahan vs. Cal Quantrill | +3.1 / -7.9 | Rays | 54% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb