Predictions for every game on 2026-09-04 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox @ Orioles | Ranger Suarez vs. Shane Baz | +5.9 / +4.0 | Red Sox | 53% | 4.8–4.2 | 9.1 |
| Twins @ White Sox | Zebby Matthews vs. Erick Fedde | -4.6 / +2.0 | White Sox | 57% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 |
| Brewers @ Reds | Shane Drohan vs. Rhett Lowder | -7.4 / +3.0 | Brewers | 58% | 5.2–4.0 | 9.2 |
| Tigers @ Guardians | Keider Montero vs. Logan Allen | +2.1 / -16.0 | Guardians | 50% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.7 |
| Cardinals @ Rockies | Andre Pallante vs. Ryan Feltner | +0.8 / +7.7 | Cardinals | 56% | 5.2–4.3 | 9.5 |
| Diamondbacks @ Astros | Merrill Kelly vs. Cristian Javier | -1.4 / -3.6 | Astros | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
| Blue Jays @ Royals | Jameson Taillon vs. Daniel Lynch IV | -9.5 / -11.6 | Blue Jays | 50% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Nationals @ Dodgers | Jackson Kent vs. Blake Snell | -1.6 / +18.1 | Dodgers | 67% | 5.3–3.7 | 9.0 |
| Cubs @ Marlins | Shota Imanaga vs. Janson Junk | +8.1 / -12.4 | Cubs | 56% | 5.1–4.2 | 9.3 |
| Giants @ Mets | Matt Wilkinson vs. Nolan McLean | +2.7 / +24.9 | Mets | 59% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Braves @ Phillies | Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sánchez | +29.0 / +5.8 | Phillies | 51% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.4 |
| Angels @ Pirates | Ryan Johnson vs. Jared Jones | -18.2 / +3.6 | Pirates | 64% | 4.9–3.6 | 8.6 |
| Yankees @ Padres | Max Fried vs. Walker Buehler | +5.7 / -8.0 | Yankees | 52% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.4 |
| Athletics @ Mariners | Kade Morris vs. Logan Gilbert | +8.9 / +25.9 | Mariners | 64% | 5.4–4.2 | 9.6 |
| Rays @ Rangers | Nick Martinez vs. Trevor Williams | -2.8 / -17.6 | Rays | 54% | 4.7–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Tigers @ Guardians (G2) | Andrew Sears vs. Foster Griffin | -2.2 / +5.8 | Guardians | 54% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.7 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb