MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-09-18
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 94%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 93-59 | +80 | 1536 | 97.8 | 94% | 100% |
| Yankees | 88-64 | +136 | 1551 | 93.6 | 6% | 100% |
| Orioles | 75-78 | -26 | 1496 | 79.1 | <1% | 4% |
| Red Sox | 83-70 | +83 | 1538 | 87.7 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 76-77 | -37 | 1507 | 80.6 | <1% | 24% |
AL Central — White Sox 54%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 78-75 | +36 | 1493 | 82.9 | 54% | 82% |
| Guardians | 78-75 | -7 | 1501 | 82.7 | 46% | 78% |
| Tigers | 72-81 | +74 | 1510 | 76.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 67-86 | -97 | 1477 | 71.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 71-82 | -74 | 1465 | 75.3 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 68%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 77-76 | -50 | 1496 | 81.7 | 68% | 72% |
| Rangers | 76-77 | -39 | 1491 | 80.7 | 32% | 39% |
| Mariners | 71-82 | -56 | 1486 | 76.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Athletics | 61-92 | -214 | 1431 | 64.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 59-94 | -77 | 1449 | 63.2 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 89-65 | +106 | 1528 | 94.0 | 97% | 100% |
| Phillies | 85-68 | +34 | 1537 | 89.6 | 3% | 99% |
| Marlins | 76-77 | +8 | 1496 | 79.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 69-84 | -46 | 1492 | 73.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 71-82 | +3 | 1472 | 75.1 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 95-58 | +197 | 1572 | 100.3 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 85-68 | +143 | 1545 | 90.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Reds | 71-82 | -154 | 1465 | 74.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 76-77 | +24 | 1500 | 80.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 75-78 | -14 | 1490 | 79.1 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 93-60 | +179 | 1560 | 98.4 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 80-73 | +0 | 1505 | 84.5 | <1% | 6% |
| Rockies | 56-97 | -177 | 1408 | 59.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 84-69 | +30 | 1530 | 88.8 | <1% | 95% |
| Giants | 65-89 | -65 | 1476 | 69.0 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (94%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (80%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb