MLB Grade — 2026-09-18

How the 2026-09-18 predictions scored against actual results

Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0215 ± 0.0072 per game over 351 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).

Yesterday	Correct	Log-loss
model	9/15	0.625
always-pick-home	7/15	0.700

Daily detail: 60% hit rate · Brier 0.217 · avg margin error 3.5 · avg total-runs error 2.2. Running: 204/351 (58.1%) · cumulative log-loss 0.671 · cumulative Brier 0.239

	Game	Pick	Predicted	Actual
✅	Yankees @ Diamondbacks	Yankees (51%)	4.5–4.1	2–9 (home first)
✅	Brewers @ Orioles	Brewers (57%)	5.1–4.1	5–6 (home first)
❌	Tigers @ White Sox	White Sox (52%)	4.5–4.4	8–11 (home first)
❌	Cubs @ Reds	Cubs (53%)	5.2–4.6	6–4 (home first)
✅	Athletics @ Guardians	Guardians (67%)	5.4–3.9	5–3 (home first)
✅	Mariners @ Rockies	Mariners (61%)	5.6–4.2	4–5 (home first)
✅	Braves @ Astros	Braves (53%)	4.6–4	2–6 (home first)
❌	Twins @ Angels	Angels (50%)	4.6–4.5	0–3 (home first)
✅	Giants @ Dodgers	Dodgers (65%)	5.2–3.8	8–2 (home first)
✅	Phillies @ Mets	Mets (53%)	4.5–4.4	6–3 (home first)
✅	Royals @ Pirates	Pirates (60%)	4.7–3.9	8–5 (home first)
✅	Marlins @ Padres	Padres (60%)	5–4.2	8–2 (home first)
❌	Nationals @ Cardinals	Cardinals (56%)	4.9–4.5	1–9 (home first)
❌	Red Sox @ Rays	Rays (52%)	4.4–4.3	2–4 (home first)
❌	Blue Jays @ Rangers	Blue Jays (53%)	4.7–4.1	7–1 (home first)

The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).

Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb