MLB Grade — 2026-09-19

How the 2026-09-19 predictions scored against actual results

Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0216 ± 0.0070 per game over 366 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).

Yesterday	Correct	Log-loss
model	11/15	0.639
always-pick-home	11/15	0.664

Daily detail: 73% hit rate · Brier 0.224 · avg margin error 2.6 · avg total-runs error 3.7. Running: 215/366 (58.7%) · cumulative log-loss 0.670 · cumulative Brier 0.238

	Game	Pick	Predicted	Actual
❌	Yankees @ Diamondbacks	Yankees (56%)	4.8–3.9	5–3 (home first)
✅	Brewers @ Orioles	Brewers (55%)	5.1–4.2	0–1 (home first)
✅	Tigers @ White Sox	White Sox (53%)	4.6–4.5	3–1 (home first)
✅	Cubs @ Reds	Cubs (55%)	5.3–4.5	2–5 (home first)
✅	Athletics @ Guardians	Guardians (62%)	5.1–4.1	12–6 (home first)
❌	Mariners @ Rockies	Mariners (55%)	5.3–4.5	5–3 (home first)
✅	Braves @ Astros	Braves (52%)	4.5–4.1	3–6 (home first)
❌	Twins @ Angels	Twins (50%)	4.4–4.1	6–5 (home first)
✅	Giants @ Dodgers	Dodgers (67%)	5.3–3.7	10–4 (home first)
✅	Phillies @ Mets	Mets (53%)	4.5–4.4	10–3 (home first)
✅	Royals @ Pirates	Pirates (55%)	4.5–4.2	6–5 (home first)
✅	Marlins @ Padres	Padres (57%)	4.8–4.4	7–6 (home first)
❌	Nationals @ Cardinals	Cardinals (54%)	4.8–4.6	5–8 (home first)
✅	Red Sox @ Rays	Rays (51%)	4.4–4.3	2–1 (home first)
✅	Blue Jays @ Rangers	Rangers (51%)	4.6–4.5	6–2 (home first)

The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).

Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb