Predictions for every game on 2026-09-20 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees @ Diamondbacks | Will Warren vs. Corbin Burnes | -25.0 / +22.4 | Diamondbacks | 53% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.6 |
| Brewers @ Orioles | Jacob Misiorowski vs. Brandon Young | +34.7 / -1.4 | Brewers | 63% | 5.4–3.7 | 9.1 |
| Tigers @ White Sox | Troy Melton vs. Davis Martin | +12.7 / +5.2 | Tigers | 50% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Cubs @ Reds | TBD vs. Rhett Lowder | +0.0 / +5.0 | Cubs | 57% | 5.4–4.3 | 9.8 |
| Athletics @ Guardians | Jack Perkins vs. Gavin Williams | +5.0 / +23.3 | Guardians | 66% | 5.5–3.9 | 9.4 |
| Mariners @ Rockies | Kade Anderson vs. Tomoyuki Sugano | -12.6 / +13.0 | Mariners | 54% | 5.2–4.5 | 9.7 |
| Braves @ Astros | Martín Pérez vs. Hunter Brown | -0.6 / +17.2 | Astros | 50% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.6 |
| Twins @ Angels | Dean Kremer vs. Ryan Johnson | -3.2 / -10.7 | Twins | 50% | 4.5–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Giants @ Dodgers | Matt Wilkinson vs. TBD | +4.1 / +0.0 | Dodgers | 66% | 5.3–3.9 | 9.2 |
| Phillies @ Mets | Cristopher Sánchez vs. Jonah Tong | +2.1 / -11.3 | Phillies | 53% | 4.8–4.1 | 9.0 |
| Royals @ Pirates | Michael Wacha vs. Lake Bachar | +13.7 / +4.7 | Pirates | 56% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Marlins @ Padres | Sandy Alcantara vs. Walker Buehler | +15.0 / -4.7 | Padres | 56% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.3 |
| Nationals @ Cardinals | Jake Irvin vs. Quinn Mathews | -20.9 / +11.3 | Cardinals | 59% | 5.1–4.4 | 9.4 |
| Red Sox @ Rays | Patrick Sandoval vs. Griffin Jax | -17.7 / -12.7 | Rays | 54% | 4.3–4.2 | 8.5 |
| Blue Jays @ Rangers | Spencer Miles vs. Jacob deGrom | -20.0 / +18.5 | Rangers | 58% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.7 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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