Predictions for every game on 2026-09-21 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays @ Orioles | Trey Yesavage vs. Shane Baz | +8.5 / +1.9 | Orioles | 51% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.6 |
| Nationals @ Tigers | DJ Herz vs. River Ryan | -3.4 / -0.8 | Tigers | 58% | 4.8–4.2 | 9.1 |
| Twins @ Giants | Zebby Matthews vs. Blade Tidwell | -11.1 / -7.2 | Giants | 54% | 4.7–4.5 | 9.2 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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