Predictions for every game on 2026-09-22 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels @ Athletics | Yusei Kikuchi vs. Brady Basso | -13.2 / +9.2 | Athletics | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Reds @ Braves | Brandon Williamson vs. JR Ritchie | +14.6 / -22.2 | Braves | 58% | 4.8–4.2 | 9.1 |
| Blue Jays @ Orioles | Max Scherzer vs. Chris Bassitt | -4.5 / -3.3 | Orioles | 52% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.5 |
| Guardians @ Red Sox | Parker Messick vs. Payton Tolle | +25.8 / +12.8 | Red Sox | 56% | 4.5–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Marlins @ Cubs | Janson Junk vs. TBD | -0.7 / +0.0 | Cubs | 62% | 5.3–4.3 | 9.6 |
| Diamondbacks @ Rockies | Michael Soroka vs. Kyle Freeland | +11.4 / +11.6 | Diamondbacks | 60% | 5.4–4.0 | 9.4 |
| Nationals @ Tigers | Jackson Kent vs. Drew Anderson | -30.2 / +1.1 | Tigers | 63% | 5.1–4.0 | 9.1 |
| White Sox @ Royals | Anthony Kay vs. Daniel Lynch IV | +1.3 / -11.5 | White Sox | 52% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Padres @ Dodgers | Michael King vs. TBD | +15.9 / +0.0 | Dodgers | 56% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Rays @ Yankees | Nick Martinez vs. Carlos Rodón | -8.4 / -0.7 | Yankees | 56% | 4.5–4.1 | 8.5 |
| Brewers @ Phillies | Dustin May vs. Zack Wheeler | -5.3 / +10.1 | Brewers | 50% | 4.7–4.4 | 9.0 |
| Cardinals @ Pirates | Andre Pallante vs. Jared Jones | +1.9 / +7.2 | Pirates | 57% | 4.8–4.3 | 9.1 |
| Astros @ Mariners | Cristian Javier vs. Logan Gilbert | -4.5 / +17.5 | Mariners | 56% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Twins @ Giants | Taj Bradley vs. Anthony Molina | +5.0 / -15.7 | Giants | 51% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.1 |
| Mets @ Rangers | Sean Manaea vs. MacKenzie Gore | +4.0 / -4.3 | Rangers | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.1 |
| Rays @ Yankees (G2) | Drew Rasmussen vs. Max Fried | +7.5 / +3.2 | Yankees | 54% | 4.4–4.2 | 8.5 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
This email online: 2026-09-22 slate · Previous: 2026-09-21 · All MLB emails