Predictions for every game on 2026-09-23 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels @ Athletics | Walbert Ureña vs. Jeffrey Springs | +12.1 / +11.5 | Athletics | 51% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.0 |
| Reds @ Braves | Andrew Abbott vs. Chris Sale | +16.4 / +31.7 | Braves | 65% | 5.1–3.8 | 8.9 |
| Blue Jays @ Orioles | Max Scherzer vs. Chris Bassitt | -4.5 / -3.3 | Orioles | 52% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.5 |
| Guardians @ Red Sox | Foster Griffin vs. Sonny Gray | +4.3 / +8.4 | Red Sox | 58% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.5 |
| Marlins @ Cubs | Ryan Gusto vs. Kevin Gausman | -6.0 / +2.1 | Cubs | 62% | 5.3–4.3 | 9.6 |
| Diamondbacks @ Rockies | Merrill Kelly vs. Mason Adams | +0.5 / +15.5 | Diamondbacks | 59% | 5.3–4.0 | 9.3 |
| Nationals @ Tigers | Richard Lovelady vs. Framber Valdez | -5.9 / +2.6 | Tigers | 59% | 4.9–4.1 | 9.0 |
| White Sox @ Royals | Bryan Hudson vs. Seth Lugo | +11.8 / -6.1 | White Sox | 53% | 4.9–4.3 | 9.2 |
| Padres @ Dodgers | Robbie Ray vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +5.8 / +21.3 | Dodgers | 61% | 4.9–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Rays @ Yankees | Ian Seymour vs. Gerrit Cole | -13.0 / -1.8 | Yankees | 56% | 4.4–4.0 | 8.4 |
| Brewers @ Phillies | Logan Henderson vs. Aaron Nola | +29.9 / -13.9 | Brewers | 58% | 5.1–3.9 | 9.0 |
| Cardinals @ Pirates | Matthew Liberatore vs. Lake Bachar | -8.1 / -0.6 | Pirates | 58% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Astros @ Mariners | Ethan Pecko vs. George Kirby | -1.2 / +0.9 | Mariners | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Twins @ Giants | Connor Prielipp vs. Cesar Perdomo | -11.2 / +2.6 | Giants | 56% | 4.7–4.3 | 9.0 |
| Mets @ Rangers | Nolan McLean vs. TBD | +20.6 / +0.0 | Mets | 50% | 4.7–4.4 | 9.1 |
| Blue Jays @ Orioles (G2) | TBD vs. TBD | +0.0 / +0.0 | Orioles | 52% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.5 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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