Predictions for every game on 2026-09-24 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros @ Athletics | Peter Lambert vs. Mason Barnett | -5.8 / -16.5 | Astros | 57% | 5.1–4.1 | 9.1 |
| Reds @ Braves | Brady Singer vs. Tyler Mahle | +6.8 / +8.0 | Braves | 63% | 5.0–3.9 | 8.8 |
| Guardians @ Red Sox | Daniel Espino vs. Ranger Suarez | +0.2 / +0.8 | Red Sox | 58% | 4.5–3.9 | 8.4 |
| Marlins @ Cubs | Tyler Phillips vs. Matthew Boyd | +1.9 / +2.9 | Cubs | 60% | 5.2–4.3 | 9.5 |
| Diamondbacks @ Rockies | Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Tanner Gordon | +8.0 / -3.2 | Diamondbacks | 63% | 5.5–3.8 | 9.3 |
| White Sox @ Royals | David Sandlin vs. Randy Dobnak | +5.2 / +1.1 | White Sox | 51% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 |
| Padres @ Dodgers | Nick Pivetta vs. Tyler Glasnow | +20.0 / +8.0 | Dodgers | 56% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Rays @ Yankees | Ian Seymour vs. Cam Schlittler | -8.8 / +16.1 | Yankees | 59% | 4.6–3.9 | 8.4 |
| Brewers @ Phillies | TBD vs. Andrew Painter | +0.0 / -27.3 | Brewers | 57% | 5.0–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Cardinals @ Pirates | Kyle Leahy vs. Paul Skenes | +5.7 / +13.4 | Pirates | 57% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Angels @ Mariners | Grayson Rodriguez vs. Bryan Woo | -13.2 / +19.6 | Mariners | 64% | 5.0–3.7 | 8.8 |
| Mets @ Rangers | Zac Thornton vs. Kumar Rocker | +8.8 / -9.9 | Mets | 51% | 4.7–4.3 | 9.1 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
This email online: 2026-09-24 slate · Previous: 2026-09-23 · All MLB emails