MLB Grade — 2026-09-25

How the 2026-09-25 predictions scored against actual results

Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0216 ± 0.0063 per game over 444 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).

Yesterday	Correct	Log-loss
model	10/17	0.669
always-pick-home	11/17	0.675

Daily detail: 59% hit rate · Brier 0.239 · avg margin error 3.0 · avg total-runs error 4.5. Running: 263/444 (59.2%) · cumulative log-loss 0.670 · cumulative Brier 0.239

	Game	Pick	Predicted	Actual
❌	Astros @ Athletics	Astros (56%)	5.1–4.1	6–5 (home first)
✅	Cubs @ Red Sox	Red Sox (52%)	4.5–4.4	4–3 (home first)
✅	Rockies @ White Sox	White Sox (66%)	5.6–4.1	6–1 (home first)
✅	Pirates @ Tigers	Tigers (55%)	4.4–4.1	8–7 (home first)
✅	Guardians @ Royals	Guardians (52%)	4.6–4.2	9–12 (home first)
❌	Braves @ Marlins	Braves (50%)	4.5–4.2	3–0 (home first)
✅	Cardinals @ Brewers	Brewers (66%)	5.3–3.8	8–4 (home first)
❌	Rangers @ Twins	Rangers (51%)	4.6–4.2	10–2 (home first)
❌	Orioles @ Yankees	Yankees (62%)	4.7–3.7	2–10 (home first)
❌	Rays @ Phillies	Phillies (55%)	4.4–4.1	0–2 (home first)
❌	Diamondbacks @ Padres	Padres (57%)	4.7–4.2	4–11 (home first)
❌	Angels @ Mariners	Mariners (59%)	4.7–4	5–7 (home first)
✅	Dodgers @ Giants	Dodgers (61%)	5.2–3.7	0–2 (home first)
✅	Reds @ Blue Jays	Blue Jays (56%)	4.6–4.3	6–5 (home first)
✅	Mets @ Nationals	Nationals (52%)	4.6–4.5	7–6 (home first)
✅	Cubs @ Red Sox	Red Sox (52%)	4.5–4.4	2–0 (home first)
✅	Orioles @ Yankees	Yankees (58%)	4.6–3.9	6–3 (home first)

The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).

Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb