How the 2026-09-26 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0224 ± 0.0063 per game over 457 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 8/13 | 0.674 |
| always-pick-home | 4/13 | 0.722 |
Daily detail: 62% hit rate · Brier 0.240 · avg margin error 4.5 · avg total-runs error 3.7. Running: 271/457 (59.3%) · cumulative log-loss 0.671 · cumulative Brier 0.239
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Astros @ Athletics | Astros (55%) | 5–4.2 | 2–13 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rockies @ White Sox | White Sox (64%) | 5.4–4.1 | 6–9 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Tigers | Tigers (54%) | 4.4–4.3 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Guardians @ Royals | Royals (50%) | 4.8–4.7 | 5–11 (home first) |
| ✅ | Braves @ Marlins | Braves (50%) | 4.5–4.2 | 3–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cardinals @ Brewers | Brewers (64%) | 5.3–4 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rangers @ Twins | Rangers (52%) | 4.7–4.2 | 2–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rays @ Phillies | Phillies (54%) | 4.3–4.1 | 1–12 (home first) |
| ✅ | Diamondbacks @ Padres | Padres (56%) | 4.8–4.4 | 10–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Angels @ Mariners | Mariners (60%) | 4.9–4 | 8–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Giants | Dodgers (62%) | 5.1–3.5 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Reds @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays (60%) | 4.9–4.1 | 1–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ Nationals | Nationals (54%) | 4.7–4.5 | 1–7 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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