Predictions for every game on 2026-09-26 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros @ Athletics | Hayden Wesneski vs. Jack Perkins | +2.0 / +5.0 | Astros | 55% | 5.0–4.2 | 9.2 |
| Rockies @ White Sox | Jose Quintana vs. Davis Martin | +27.3 / +5.0 | White Sox | 64% | 5.4–4.1 | 9.6 |
| Pirates @ Tigers | Kirby Yates vs. Justin Verlander | -1.1 / -0.9 | Tigers | 54% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.7 |
| Guardians @ Royals | Tanner Bibee vs. Michael Wacha | +3.1 / +23.9 | Royals | 50% | 4.8–4.7 | 9.1 |
| Braves @ Marlins | Brent Suter vs. Jack Ralston | -4.7 / +1.1 | Braves | 50% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.7 |
| Cardinals @ Brewers | Quinn Mathews vs. Dustin May | +10.5 / -7.3 | Brewers | 64% | 5.3–4.0 | 9.2 |
| Rangers @ Twins | Nathan Eovaldi vs. Bailey Ober | +16.8 / -8.6 | Rangers | 52% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Rays @ Phillies | Griffin Jax vs. TBD | -11.8 / +0.0 | Phillies | 54% | 4.3–4.1 | 8.4 |
| Diamondbacks @ Padres | TBD vs. Walker Buehler | +0.0 / +0.1 | Padres | 56% | 4.8–4.4 | 9.1 |
| Angels @ Mariners | Ryan Johnson vs. Kade Anderson | -8.4 / +6.8 | Mariners | 60% | 4.9–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Dodgers @ Giants | Blake Snell vs. Matt Wilkinson | +9.6 / -2.7 | Dodgers | 62% | 5.1–3.5 | 8.7 |
| Reds @ Blue Jays | Rhett Lowder vs. Trey Yesavage | +1.3 / +12.0 | Blue Jays | 60% | 4.9–4.1 | 9.0 |
| Mets @ Nationals | Jonah Tong vs. Connelly Early | -15.5 / +7.5 | Nationals | 54% | 4.7–4.5 | 9.1 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb
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