MLB Grade — 2026-09-27

How the 2026-09-27 predictions scored against actual results

Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0232 ± 0.0062 per game over 471 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).

Yesterday	Correct	Log-loss
model	10/14	0.617
always-pick-home	10/14	0.666

Daily detail: 71% hit rate · Brier 0.213 · avg margin error 3.0 · avg total-runs error 1.9. Running: 281/471 (59.7%) · cumulative log-loss 0.669 · cumulative Brier 0.238 · 1 postponed/skipped

	Game	Pick	Predicted	Actual
✅	Astros @ Athletics	Astros (54%)	5–4.3	0–9 (home first)
❌	Cubs @ Red Sox	Red Sox (52%)	4.4–4.3	2–6 (home first)
✅	Rockies @ White Sox	White Sox (65%)	5.5–4.2	4–2 (home first)
❌	Pirates @ Tigers	Tigers (55%)	4.5–4.2	2–4 (home first)
❌	Guardians @ Royals	Guardians (58%)	5.2–4.1	3–2 (home first)
✅	Braves @ Marlins	Marlins (50%)	4.6–4.5	5–3 (home first)
✅	Cardinals @ Brewers	Brewers (70%)	5.6–3.6	6–4 (home first)
✅	Rangers @ Twins	Twins (51%)	4.6–4.5	6–4 (home first)
✅	Rays @ Phillies	Phillies (54%)	4.3–4.2	7–3 (home first)
✅	Diamondbacks @ Padres	Padres (55%)	4.8–4.5	9–4 (home first)
✅	Angels @ Mariners	Mariners (63%)	5–3.9	7–3 (home first)
✅	Dodgers @ Giants	Dodgers (60%)	5–3.6	1–5 (home first)
✅	Reds @ Blue Jays	Blue Jays (56%)	4.6–4.3	5–1 (home first)
❌	Mets @ Nationals	Mets (51%)	4.7–4.4	6–4 (home first)

The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).

Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb