MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-10-14
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 98-64 | +86 | 1538 | 98.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Orioles | 79-82 | -21 | 1499 | 79.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Red Sox | 87-75 | +78 | 1535 | 87.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Yankees | 93-68 | +138 | 1550 | 93.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Blue Jays | 79-83 | -46 | 1500 | 79.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL Central — Guardians 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Guardians | 85-77 | +11 | 1510 | 85.0 | 100% | 100% |
| White Sox | 84-78 | +56 | 1500 | 84.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Tigers | 76-86 | +71 | 1506 | 76.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Royals | 69-93 | -120 | 1465 | 69.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Twins | 77-85 | -58 | 1473 | 77.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 81-81 | -32 | 1499 | 81.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Athletics | 64-98 | -238 | 1424 | 64.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 62-100 | -97 | 1441 | 62.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Mariners | 76-86 | -58 | 1483 | 76.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Rangers | 80-82 | -46 | 1487 | 80.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 94-69 | +111 | 1529 | 94.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Marlins | 80-82 | +3 | 1496 | 80.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Mets | 74-88 | -32 | 1498 | 74.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Phillies | 88-74 | +15 | 1528 | 88.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Nationals | 77-85 | +6 | 1477 | 77.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 103-59 | +214 | 1581 | 103.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Cubs | 89-73 | +147 | 1544 | 89.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Reds | 75-87 | -160 | 1466 | 75.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 82-80 | +28 | 1503 | 82.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Cardinals | 77-85 | -29 | 1482 | 77.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL West — Dodgers 100%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 100-62 | +201 | 1566 | 100.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 86-76 | +9 | 1511 | 86.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Rockies | 58-104 | -192 | 1403 | 58.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Padres | 91-71 | +41 | 1538 | 91.0 | <1% | 100% |
| Giants | 66-97 | -86 | 1466 | 66.0 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (100%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (100%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb