NFL Elo Update

Run date 2026-09-05 · Week 1 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.

🏆 Elo power ratings

#TeamDivisionW-LPt diffEloΔ pre
1SEA Seattle SeahawksNFC West0-0+01652+0
2LA Los Angeles RamsNFC West0-0+01596+0
3DEN Denver BroncosAFC West0-0+01594+0
4BUF Buffalo BillsAFC East0-0+01593+0
5HOU Houston TexansAFC South0-0+01591+0
6NE New England PatriotsAFC East0-0+01584+0
7JAX Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South0-0+01560+0
8PHI Philadelphia EaglesNFC East0-0+01553+0
9SF San Francisco 49ersNFC West0-0+01550+0
10DET Detroit LionsNFC North0-0+01545+0
11MIN Minnesota VikingsNFC North0-0+01542+0
12BAL Baltimore RavensAFC North0-0+01535+0
13CHI Chicago BearsNFC North0-0+01525+0
14LAC Los Angeles ChargersAFC West0-0+01523+0
15GB Green Bay PackersNFC North0-0+01523+0
16PIT Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North0-0+01508+0
17KC Kansas City ChiefsAFC West0-0+01491+0
18TB Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South0-0+01481+0
19CIN Cincinnati BengalsAFC North0-0+01476+0
20ATL Atlanta FalconsNFC South0-0+01474+0
21IND Indianapolis ColtsAFC South0-0+01471+0
22WAS Washington CommandersNFC East0-0+01459+0
23DAL Dallas CowboysNFC East0-0+01459+0
24MIA Miami DolphinsAFC East0-0+01458+0
25NO New Orleans SaintsNFC South0-0+01444+0
26CAR Carolina PanthersNFC South0-0+01438+0
27NYG New York GiantsNFC East0-0+01430+0
28CLE Cleveland BrownsAFC North0-0+01429+0
29ARI Arizona CardinalsNFC West0-0+01403+0
30NYJ New York JetsAFC East0-0+01375+0
31TEN Tennessee TitansAFC South0-0+01371+0
32LV Las Vegas RaidersAFC West0-0+01367+0

Divisions by average Elo

#DivisionAvgPreseasonIn top 10BestWorst
1NFC West155015503SEA (1652)ARI (1403)
2NFC North153415341DET (1545)GB (1523)
3AFC East150215022BUF (1593)NYJ (1375)
4AFC South149814982HOU (1591)TEN (1371)
5AFC West149414941DEN (1594)LV (1367)
6AFC North148714870BAL (1535)CLE (1429)
7NFC East147514751PHI (1553)NYG (1430)
8NFC South145914590TB (1481)CAR (1438)

📅 This week's games

Wednesday 2026-09-09 · 1 games

ETMatchup (home in bold)PickWin probElo line (home)Exp. score (winner first)Exp. total
20:20NE @ SEASEA66%-4.623.7–19.142.8

Thursday 2026-09-10 · 1 games

ETMatchup (home in bold)PickWin probElo line (home)Exp. score (winner first)Exp. total
20:35SF vs. LA (N)LA56%-1.826.6–24.851.4

Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13 games

ETMatchup (home in bold)PickWin probElo line (home)Exp. score (winner first)Exp. total
13:00CHI @ CARCHI56%+1.723.7–22.045.7
13:00TB @ CINCIN56%-1.725.7–24.149.8
13:00NO @ DETDET70%-6.026.3–20.346.6
13:00BUF @ HOUHOU57%-1.824.1–22.346.5
13:00BAL @ INDBAL52%+0.825.5–24.750.2
13:00CLE @ JAXJAX74%-7.225.1–17.943.1
13:00ATL @ PITPIT62%-3.323.9–20.744.6
13:00NYJ @ TENTEN56%-1.723.3–21.745.0
16:25ARI @ LACLAC72%-6.825.6–18.844.3
16:25MIA @ LVMIA56%+1.921.5–19.641.2
16:25GB @ MINMIN60%-2.722.1–19.441.5
16:25WAS @ PHIPHI69%-5.725.5–19.845.3
20:20DAL @ NYGNYG53%-0.726.2–25.651.8

Monday 2026-09-14 · 1 games

ETMatchup (home in bold)PickWin probElo line (home)Exp. score (winner first)Exp. total
20:15DEN @ KCDEN58%+2.421.1–18.839.9

Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

WindowCorrectAccuracyLog lossΔLL vs always-home
Last 7 days0———
Last 30 days0———
Season to date0———

ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.

No games graded in the past week.

🔮 Season forecasts

Super Bowl odds — all 32

#TeamDivisionW-LProj W-LDivisionPlayoffs#1 seedConf. titleSuper Bowl
1SEANFC West0-011.8-5.251%82%26%23%13%
2HOUAFC South0-010.9-6.150%75%18%15%8%
3DENAFC West0-010.5-6.553%72%15%15%8%
4LANFC West0-010.4-6.628%65%13%13%7%
5BUFAFC East0-010.3-6.744%70%13%13%7%
6NEAFC East0-010.1-6.941%67%12%12%6%
7PHINFC East0-09.9-7.149%63%10%10%5%
8JAXAFC South0-09.7-7.332%60%9%9%5%
9SFNFC West0-09.5-7.519%52%8%8%4%
10BALAFC North0-09.6-7.438%58%8%8%4%
11MINNFC North0-09.6-7.428%55%8%8%4%
12DETNFC North0-09.9-7.131%58%9%8%4%
13GBNFC North0-08.9-8.120%45%5%6%3%
14CHINFC North0-08.7-8.320%43%5%5%3%
15LACAFC West0-08.5-8.524%45%4%5%2%
16PITAFC North0-08.7-8.326%47%5%5%2%
17KCAFC West0-08.1-8.919%38%3%4%2%
18TBNFC South0-08.3-8.731%42%4%4%2%
19CINAFC North0-08.4-8.622%41%4%4%2%
20INDAFC South0-08.0-9.014%36%3%3%1%
21ATLNFC South0-08.1-8.928%40%3%4%1%
22WASNFC East0-07.6-9.419%31%2%3%1%
23MIAAFC East0-07.2-9.811%28%2%3%1%
24DALNFC East0-07.5-9.518%30%2%2%1%
25NONFC South0-07.8-9.223%33%3%2%1%
26CLEAFC North0-07.4-9.614%30%2%2%1%
27NYGNFC East0-07.0-10.013%23%1%2%1%
28CARNFC South0-07.0-10.018%25%1%2%1%
29ARINFC West0-06.0-11.02%11%1%1%<1%
30NYJAFC East0-05.6-11.44%12%0%1%<1%
31TENAFC South0-05.8-11.24%13%0%1%<1%
32LVAFC West0-05.4-11.64%10%<1%<1%<1%

Division races

DivisionTitle odds
AFC EastBUF 44%, NE 41%, MIA 11%, NYJ 4%
AFC NorthBAL 38%, PIT 26%, CIN 22%, CLE 14%
AFC SouthHOU 50%, JAX 32%, IND 14%, TEN 4%
AFC WestDEN 53%, LAC 24%, KC 19%, LV 4%
NFC EastPHI 49%, WAS 19%, DAL 18%, NYG 13%
NFC NorthDET 31%, MIN 28%, GB 20%, CHI 20%
NFC SouthTB 31%, ATL 28%, NO 23%, CAR 18%
NFC WestSEA 51%, LA 28%, SF 19%, ARI 2%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 272 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.

Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl