NFL Elo Update
Run date 2026-09-14 · Week 1 · the power ratings, this week's games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo power ratings
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Pt diff | Elo | Δ pre |
|---|
| 1 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 1-0 | +3 | 1661 | +9 |
| 2 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 1-0 | +5 | 1613 | +20 |
| 3 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 0-0 | +0 | 1594 | +0 |
| 4 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 1-0 | +20 | 1585 | +34 |
| 5 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 1-0 | +24 | 1576 | +16 |
| 6 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 0-1 | -3 | 1575 | -9 |
| 7 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0-1 | -5 | 1571 | -20 |
| 8 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 1-0 | +17 | 1565 | +23 |
| 9 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 1-0 | +18 | 1563 | +28 |
| 10 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 0-1 | -20 | 1562 | -34 |
| 11 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 1-0 | +2 | 1559 | +6 |
| 12 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 1-0 | +22 | 1553 | +27 |
| 13 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 1-0 | +1 | 1548 | +4 |
| 14 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 1-0 | +7 | 1524 | +15 |
| 15 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 0-1 | -17 | 1500 | -23 |
| 16 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 1-0 | +6 | 1493 | +17 |
| 17 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 0-0 | +0 | 1491 | +0 |
| 18 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0-1 | -12 | 1486 | -37 |
| 19 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0-1 | -6 | 1464 | -17 |
| 20 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 0-1 | -7 | 1458 | -15 |
| 21 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 0-1 | -2 | 1453 | -6 |
| 22 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 1-0 | +8 | 1450 | +21 |
| 23 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 0-1 | -18 | 1443 | -28 |
| 24 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1-0 | +12 | 1440 | +37 |
| 25 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 0-1 | -1 | 1440 | -4 |
| 26 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 0-1 | -8 | 1438 | -21 |
| 27 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0-1 | -14 | 1428 | -30 |
| 28 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 0-1 | -24 | 1413 | -16 |
| 29 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 0-1 | -22 | 1411 | -27 |
| 30 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 1-0 | +13 | 1404 | +30 |
| 31 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 1-0 | +14 | 1397 | +30 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0-1 | -13 | 1341 | -30 |
Divisions by average Elo
| # | Division | Avg | Preseason | In top 10 | Best | Worst |
|---|
| 1 | NFC West | 1562 | 1550 | 3 | SEA (1661) | ARI (1440) |
| 2 | NFC North | 1542 | 1534 | 1 | MIN (1565) | GB (1500) |
| 3 | AFC East | 1505 | 1502 | 2 | BUF (1613) | NYJ (1404) |
| 4 | AFC North | 1498 | 1487 | 1 | BAL (1563) | CLE (1413) |
| 5 | AFC West | 1492 | 1494 | 1 | DEN (1594) | LV (1397) |
| 6 | AFC South | 1483 | 1498 | 2 | JAX (1576) | TEN (1341) |
| 7 | NFC East | 1475 | 1475 | 0 | PHI (1559) | DAL (1438) |
| 8 | NFC South | 1444 | 1459 | 0 | TB (1464) | CAR (1411) |
📅 This week's games
Monday 2026-09-14 · 1 games
| ET | Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Elo line (home) | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| 20:15 | DEN @ KC | DEN | 58% | +2.5 | 21.2–18.7 | 39.9 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N; a side off its bye gets the rest edge). The Elo line is the model's own spread from the home side — it has never seen a market number. Expected score is that margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each team's recent points for/against, shrunk to the league mean); read it as an average, not a literal final.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 10/15 | 66.7% | 0.6335 | -0.0375 ± 0.0541 |
| Last 30 days | 10/15 | 66.7% | 0.6335 | -0.0375 ± 0.0541 |
| Season to date | 10/15 | 66.7% | 0.6335 | -0.0375 ± 0.0541 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.55, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Picks lock the first morning a game appears on a slate.
Past week: 10/15 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Elo line | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-09 | NE @ SEA | SEA (66%) | -4.6 | 13–10 | 0.41 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-10 | SF vs. LA (N) | LA (56%) | -1.8 | 7–27 | 0.83 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | CHI @ CAR | CHI (56%) | +1.7 | 37–59 | 0.59 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | TB @ CIN | CIN (56%) | -1.7 | 33–27 | 0.58 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | NO @ DET | DET (70%) | -6.0 | 31–30 | 0.35 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | BUF @ HOU | HOU (57%) | -1.8 | 31–36 | 0.84 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | BAL @ IND | BAL (52%) | +0.8 | 23–41 | 0.65 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | CLE @ JAX | JAX (74%) | -7.2 | 34–10 | 0.30 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | ARI @ LAC | LAC (72%) | -6.8 | 14–26 | 1.29 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | MIA @ LV | MIA (56%) | +1.9 | 27–13 | 0.83 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | GB @ MIN | MIN (60%) | -2.7 | 39–22 | 0.52 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | DAL @ NYG | NYG (53%) | -0.7 | 28–20 | 0.64 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | WAS @ PHI | PHI (69%) | -5.7 | 24–22 | 0.37 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-13 | ATL @ PIT | PIT (62%) | -3.3 | 20–13 | 0.48 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-13 | NYJ @ TEN | TEN (56%) | -1.7 | 10–23 | 0.83 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Super Bowl odds — all 32
| # | Team | Division | W-L | Proj W-L | Division | Playoffs | #1 seed | Conf. title | Super Bowl |
|---|
| 1 | SEA | NFC West | 1-0 | 12.3-4.7 | 55% | 86% | 30% | 26% | 15% |
| 2 | BUF | AFC East | 1-0 | 11.3-5.7 | 59% | 82% | 21% | 18% | 9% |
| 3 | DEN | AFC West | 0-0 | 10.4-6.6 | 57% | 72% | 14% | 14% | 8% |
| 4 | SF | NFC West | 1-0 | 10.8-6.2 | 30% | 70% | 15% | 13% | 6% |
| 5 | JAX | AFC South | 1-0 | 10.4-6.6 | 46% | 70% | 12% | 12% | 6% |
| 6 | BAL | AFC North | 1-0 | 10.8-6.2 | 46% | 74% | 15% | 12% | 6% |
| 7 | HOU | AFC South | 0-1 | 10.0-7.0 | 42% | 66% | 8% | 11% | 5% |
| 8 | NE | AFC East | 0-1 | 9.5-7.5 | 30% | 61% | 8% | 10% | 5% |
| 9 | MIN | NFC North | 1-0 | 10.4-6.6 | 34% | 65% | 11% | 10% | 5% |
| 10 | PHI | NFC East | 1-0 | 10.3-6.7 | 57% | 69% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| 11 | CHI | NFC North | 1-0 | 9.8-7.2 | 26% | 57% | 8% | 8% | 4% |
| 12 | DET | NFC North | 1-0 | 10.2-6.8 | 30% | 62% | 10% | 8% | 4% |
| 13 | LA | NFC West | 0-1 | 9.0-8.0 | 11% | 44% | 4% | 6% | 3% |
| 14 | PIT | AFC North | 1-0 | 9.5-7.5 | 25% | 55% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| 15 | CIN | AFC North | 1-0 | 9.3-7.7 | 23% | 51% | 6% | 5% | 2% |
| 16 | KC | AFC West | 0-0 | 8.1-8.9 | 22% | 40% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 17 | GB | NFC North | 0-1 | 8.0-9.0 | 10% | 32% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 18 | TB | NFC South | 0-1 | 7.7-9.3 | 31% | 38% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 19 | LAC | AFC West | 0-1 | 7.0-10.0 | 13% | 26% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 20 | ATL | NFC South | 0-1 | 7.5-9.5 | 29% | 35% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 21 | NYG | NFC East | 1-0 | 8.0-9.0 | 21% | 33% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 22 | NO | NFC South | 0-1 | 7.3-9.7 | 26% | 32% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 23 | WAS | NFC East | 0-1 | 7.1-9.9 | 13% | 23% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 24 | IND | AFC South | 0-1 | 7.0-10.0 | 9% | 23% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 25 | ARI | NFC West | 1-0 | 7.3-9.7 | 4% | 20% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 26 | DAL | NFC East | 0-1 | 6.7-10.3 | 10% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 27 | MIA | AFC East | 0-1 | 5.9-11.1 | 4% | 14% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 28 | CLE | AFC North | 0-1 | 6.8-10.2 | 6% | 21% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 29 | NYJ | AFC East | 1-0 | 6.7-10.3 | 6% | 20% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 30 | CAR | NFC South | 0-1 | 6.0-11.0 | 14% | 17% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 31 | LV | AFC West | 1-0 | 6.5-10.5 | 8% | 19% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-1 | 4.7-12.3 | 2% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Division races
| Division | Title odds |
|---|
| AFC East | BUF 59%, NE 30%, NYJ 6%, MIA 4% |
| AFC North | BAL 46%, PIT 25%, CIN 23%, CLE 6% |
| AFC South | JAX 46%, HOU 42%, IND 9%, TEN 2% |
| AFC West | DEN 57%, KC 22%, LAC 13%, LV 8% |
| NFC East | PHI 57%, NYG 21%, WAS 13%, DAL 10% |
| NFC North | MIN 34%, DET 30%, CHI 26%, GB 10% |
| NFC South | TB 31%, ATL 29%, NO 26%, CAR 14% |
| NFC West | SEA 55%, SF 30%, LA 11%, ARI 4% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 257 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo, then the full seven-team bracket: Wild Card at the higher seed, the #1 seed off its bye, Super Bowl at a neutral site). Ties break on division / conference record, then at random — the real tiebreaker ladder is not modeled.
Betting-blind NFL Elo (margin-weighted updates, bye-week rest edge, off-season regression) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/nfl